Skymet cuts 2026 monsoon forecast, sees 70% chance of drought

New Delhi: Skymet on Monday revised its 2026 southwest monsoon forecast, downgrading it to 85% of long period average (LPA), with a 70% probability of drought, amid escalating concerns over El Nino-associated with erratic weather patterns.

The private weather forecaster had in April projected the summer monsoon at 6% below normal or 94% of LPA.

"Strengthening El Nino conditions and uncertainty surrounding the positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) are expected to weigh on the remaining monsoon season," it said in a statement.


Countrywide rainfall between June 1 and July 31 remained 13% below the LPA. August rainfall is forecast at 84% of LPA, while September rainfall is projected at 80%, the forecaster said. "The El Nino is gaining strength," said Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet, adding the weather pattern is likely to make a transition from the 'strong' to 'very strong' category during early September.

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Unpredictable monsoons due to El Nino conditions in 2023 reduced India's foodgrain output by 6.1% in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June).

Earlier, the India Meteorological Department had updated its 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall forecast to 90% of LPA, down from the earlier projection of 92%.

Prediction for precipitation during August-September period is likely to be less than 94% of LPA, according to the official weather office.

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India gets 75-80% of its annual rainfall during the four-month-long monsoon season, accounting for more than half of the country's foodgrain production.

For major monsoon or kharif crops such as paddy, cotton, pulses and oilseeds, the distribution and timing of rainfall are critical as any inconsistency in precipitation could weigh on sowing decisions.