Rainfall expected to be normal in August-September: IMD

Rainfall over the country during the second half (August to September period) of the southwest monsoon season, 2023 is expected to be normal - 94 to 106% of Long Period Average (LPA), according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The rainfall will “most probably be on the negative side of the normal, meaning in the range of 94-99% of the LPA, said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD.

Most areas adjacent to the Himalayas, east central India and some parts of east and northeast India are likely to see normal to above normal rainfall during the August-September period. However, peninsular India, western and central parts of the country are most likely to receive below normal rainfall.


The El Niño conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region are weak at present, however, the latest MMCFS and other climate models indicate that these conditions are likely to intensify further and continue upto early next year.

El Niño refers to a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and is known to cause rainfall deficiency in India.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is neutral at present, could turn positive during the remaining part of the monsoon season. A positive IOD can enable normal rains in India.

The southwest monsoon brings about 70% of India’s annual rain. Adequate rain will help boost crop output and lower food prices in the country where most of the farmland is rain-fed.

August Forecast
The monthly rainfall over the country during August 2023 is very likely to be below normal – less than 94 % of LPA, according to the weather office.

Most parts of south Peninsula, east and northeast India and many areas of western parts of northwest and central India are likely to observe above normal maximum temperature in August while some areas of north peninsular India, east central India and along the plains of Himalayas may get normal to below normal temperatures.

During August, above normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of India except some parts of northwest India where below normal minimum temperatures are likely.

Despite the forecast of below normal rainfall during August, there would be no negative impact on kharif crops as the heavy rainfall in July has replenished the soil moisture as well as the canals and reservoirs, agricultural experts said.

As June witnessed large deficiency in rainfall activities across various parts of the country, sowing activities across various states were delayed. However, with monsoon entering an active phase and rainfall picking up planting of crops also picked up pace.

The total area sown in the country is 830.31 lakh hectares till July 28 compared to 832.32 lakh hectares in the same period last year, according to latest government data. While this is marginally (0.30%) less than last year, it has rapidly increased compared to June and early July.