Pakistan floods: India’s alert saves 1.5 lakh lives, next 48 hours critical

More than 150,000 people have been evacuated from villages in Pakistan’s Punjab province after India released water from overflowing dams into cross-border rivers, officials said on Tuesday. The move has triggered fears of “very high to exceptionally high” flooding, coming on top of weeks of heavy monsoon rains that have killed more than 800 people in Pakistan and at least 65 in Indian-administered Kashmir since late June.

Authorities confirmed evacuations were continuing in low-lying districts along the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers. The army has been assisting in rescue operations, and relief camps have been set up for displaced families.

Rising waters and India’s dam releases

According to Reuters, Pakistan’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority said India had opened all gates of the Thein Dam on the Ravi River and was preparing to release water from the Madhopur Dam. Satellite imagery showed Thein Dam was 97% full, raising fears of imminent discharges.


“The flood situation is grave. The next 48 hours will be critical,” said Irfan Ali Kathia, a senior official in Punjab province.

Indian officials told Reuters that warnings were shared with Islamabad on “humanitarian grounds” because of intense rains in Jammu and Kashmir. New Delhi confirmed that most rivers and streams in the region were overflowing, damaging roads, bridges and homes.

The NDMA said evacuations began on Friday after India issued its second warning in two days. Around 35,000 people left voluntarily since August 14, while others moved after alerts were issued.

Deputy commissioner Saba Asghar Ali, after visiting Pasrur city near the Indian border, said 16 villages were at immediate risk. “Arrangements for food, medicines, washrooms, and other necessities have been made in relief camps,” she told reporters.

Pakistan’s irrigation minister Kazim Raza Pirzada said, “Due to climate change, eastern rivers are experiencing heavier rainfall compared to the past.”

Cross-border flooding fears and strained ties

The Associated Press reported that India had alerted Pakistan of possible flooding through diplomatic channels on Monday. This was the first direct public contact in months between the two sides. The information was not shared through the Indus Waters Commission, the permanent mechanism under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, as India suspended the arrangement earlier this year after a militant attack in Kashmir.

Pakistan maintains that India cannot unilaterally scrap the treaty, which has survived two wars and several conflicts. Analysts warn that damage linked to dam releases could further strain ties, especially after May’s border clashes, which triggered tit-for-tat missile strikes before a ceasefire was announced by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Climate, monsoon and humanitarian crisis

Pakistan’s flood alert is part of a wider monsoon crisis. Since late June, more than 800 people have died in Pakistan, half of them in August alone, Reuters reported. In Gilgit Baltistan, glacial melting has increased, while Karachi was partly submerged last week.

AP reported that flash floods in Buner district earlier this month killed more than 300 people. Officials said the deluge was caused by a sudden cloudburst.

In Indian-administered Kashmir, at least 68 flood-related deaths have been confirmed this month. The Indian Meteorological Department forecast heavy rains through late Tuesday, raising fears of more damage.

The region has memories of the 2014 monsoon floods that killed nearly 500 people across both sides of Kashmir. Scientists have linked worsening monsoon cycles to climate change. Pakistan’s 2022 floods, which killed 1,739 people and submerged a third of the country, remain a reminder of the risks.

“This year’s rains again raise fears of a repeat of 2022,” one NDMA official told AP. “Preparedness is better now, but the scale of flooding across borders is beyond what any one country can manage.”

Relief and uncertainty ahead

Authorities in Punjab said evacuations were still underway in districts including Kasur and Bahawalnagar, where more than 100,000 residents had already been moved to safety. Relief camps are stocked with food, medicine and sanitation facilities, though officials said resources were stretched.

The NDMA has urged citizens to stay away from rivers, avoid unnecessary travel and follow alerts sent via mobile phones and disaster apps.

Officials described the situation as “volatile,” warning that fresh dam discharges combined with ongoing rains could worsen the crisis.

“This is a humanitarian crisis above politics,” one Pakistani disaster official said. “But the reality is that politics is never far from the waters that flow between us.”

(With inputs from Reuters and Associated Press)