Now, Covid deaths begin to surge at same rate as cases

The first few weeks of the Covid pandemic’s second wave in India did not see a corresponding rise in fatalities. But that has changed in the last four weeks. Since March 8, Covid-related deaths have risen at the same pace as the spike in infections, with the seven-day average of daily cases and fatalities both surging by nearly 345% during this period.

Daily deaths (seven-day average) have risen from 96 on March 8 to 425 on April 4, which translates to an increase of nearly 4.5 times, exactly mirroring the rise in cases during this period. In the previous four weeks (February 8 to March 8), there was a 50% rise in average daily cases but no increase in deaths.

While fatalities remain low when compared with periods of similar daily case counts during the first wave, the recent spike in deaths has been the sharpest since the beginning of the pandemic.


There were 2,974 Covid deaths recorded last week (March 29-April 4), a record 59% higher than the count in the previous week (1,875). Nearly 1,100 more deaths were recorded last week than in the previous seven days, which was the highest weekly jump in fatalities since the coronavirus outbreak in India. The previous two weeks had seen fatalities rise by 51% and 41%, respectively, again the sharpest increases in percentage terms except for the June 15-21 week, when hundreds of backdated deaths were added to the tally.

That Covid deaths remain below levels seen when similar numbers of daily cases were being recorded in the past could be because of a lag in fatalities often seen when infections spike rapidly. Clearly, Covid deaths need to be monitored closely in the coming weeks.