Mumbai: April deaths raise an alarm, trend may persist for a while

MUMBAI: Even as Mumbai's positivity rate has started to slide, high number of deaths in April has become a cause for concern. In absolute numbers, fatalities have increased nearly 200%—from 166 in the first week of April to 490 in the last week. Compared to March (215), there is a near seven-fold rise in April (1479).


BMC commissioner Iqbal Singh Chahal told TOI, “We are looking deep into that with state task force experts.” The rise was also seen in case fatality rate (CFR), which means deaths in confirmed cases. From 0.24% in the first week of April, it rose to 0.46% in the second, 0.63% in the third and 1.27% by the fourth week.




Former KEM dean Dr Avinash Supe, who heads the Covid death audit committee, confirmed that the CFR has risen and may continue to remain high for a while.

“As we see a gradual decline in active cases over the next few weeks, the death rate too will come down but after a little more time,” he said.

A high number of deaths were expected in the third and fourth week of April since the first and second weeks saw a huge surge in cases, 68,165 and 62,153 respectively.

Epidemiologist Giridhara Babu said there is always a lag time between a surge and casualties.

“A patient usually stays in ICU for 14 days before he recovers or dies. Hence, a surge in deaths is seen weeks after cases start declining,” he said, adding that the fatality rate in the second wave is higher than the first one. Dr Supe said about 10% fatalities are of those under 45 years.



Deaths could further rise as numbers get reconciled. Ward officials said they are being informed about a greater number of mortalities from their ward in the recent past. "We were informed of almost 25 deaths that were previously unreported in the past 3-4 days," said one officer.

Another said this was expected. "When the cases were at its peak earlier this month, getting ICU and ventilator beds was difficult. Treatment in severe cases may have got delayed," he said.

The incharge of a Covid hospital said many may have died at home, directly or indirectly due to Covid, and the April toll would be much higher.

Dr Hemant Deshmukh, dean of KEM Hospital, however, said 60% of deaths in his hospital were citizens of the wider MMR region. “At least 40% of our admissions are MMR residents and 60% deaths have been among them. Deaths in KEM rose from 13 in January, 8 in February, to 32 in March to 59 in April.