Monsoon to arrive in Kerala on May 26, six days early; IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for 2026

Pune: The monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 26, six days ahead of the normal onset date of June 1, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said Friday.

The progress of the monsoon is keenly watched this year amid concerns over the emergence of the El Nino weather phenomenon, which could adversely affect rainfall in India. The IMD has forecast below normal rainfall-92% of the long-period average-for 2026.

Also read: IMD new monsoon forecast system: How AI will allow weather department in predicting rains


Onset of the monsoon on the mainland kickstarts sowing operations for key kharif crops like rice, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane.

The southwest monsoon usually arrives in Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about seven days and covers the entire country by July 15.

In India where most of the farmland is rain-fed, a normal southwest monsoon that brings about 70% of the annual rains is crucial for farm output, ensuring food security and keeping inflation in check.

State agricultural departments have already started making seeds and fertilisers available, as farmers rush to buy these inputs with the onset of the rainy season.

"The southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala on 26th May with a model error of ± 4 days," the IMD said in a news release. Conditions are favourable for its progress to parts of the South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands in the next 24 hours.

The IMD has since 2005 been issuing operational forecasts for the date of the monsoon's onset over Kerala.

Also read: Conditions favourable for onset of southwest monsoon over South Bay of Bengal, Andaman: IMD

In the last six years, the monsoon has arrived early four times and late twice compared with the normal date of June 1. Last year, it arrived in Kerala on May 24.

Early arrival of the monsoon in Kerala does not ensure its early arrival in the rest of the country as the northward progress is not uniform.

As the monsoon progresses northward, it brings relief from scorching summer temperatures. However, the IMD said heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are likely to prevail over northwest and central India during several days of the week.