Monsoon rainfall to be slightly above normal this year: IMD

Monsoon rainfall this year will be slightly above normal across the country at 101% of the long-performing average, the weather office said on Tuesday in its revised monsoon forecast.

The probability of a normal or above-normal monsoon is at 74%, with well-distributed rainfall across core agricultural areas.

This will cheer policymakers, farmers, and manufacturers as good monsoon rainfall boosts demand for consumer goods, gold, cars, motorcycles, tractors, farm equipment and inputs such as pesticides, fertilisers, and seeds.


Concerns of unequal distribution of rain, which had worried farmers even as cumulative rainfall for the country has been excessive in India for the past two years, were also laid to rest by the weather bureau's forecast.

"Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially. Most parts of the country, especially the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions in the country, will receive normal to above normal rainfall," said M. Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The monsoon core zone consists of regions spanning Gujarat and Rajasthan in the west to Odisha and West Bengal in the east. Huge parts of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and central Maharashtra also fall under this categorisation.

"The spatial distribution suggests normal or above normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northwest India, central India and eastern parts of the southern Peninsula," IMD's stage two forecast added.

However, Jammu and Kashmir, some parts of western UP, Kerala, and the northeastern states might see deficient rainfall, the forecast added.

For the first time in the met department's 120+ year history, IMD is also issuing specific forecasts for its four homogenous regions: northwest, central, southern peninsula, and east and northeast.

Northeast India has the highest probability of suffering a deficient monsoon season at 40%, while all the other regions have at least a two-thirds chance of normal or above-normal rainfall in the months between June and September.

The monsoon's onset has not yet been declared by IMD, and is running late by a few days. It is likely to make its arrival on June 3 on the Kerala coast.