Monsoon may be a few days late, arrive on June 3: Met department

The monsoon this year will be a few days late, the met department said, in what could be a setback for agriculture in India.

The southwest monsoon is now expected to arrive on June 3, four days later than initially forecast and past the normal date of June 1.

The delay in the onset of the rains could throw off the sowing schedule of farmers, who were expecting rains to reach Kerala on May 31. Last week, the agriculture ministry had laid out a record target of 305.44 million tonnes of food grain for this year’s harvest.


“As per the latest meteorological indications, the south-westerly winds could strengthen further gradually from June 1, resulting in likely enhancement in rainfall activity over Kerala. Hence, the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to take place by June 3,” the India Meteorological Department said in a bulletin on Sunday.

Certain conditions in the progress of the monsoon had not been met, resulting in the delay, IMD director general M Mohapatra explained.

“Due to weak westerly winds near the Kerala coast, rainfall and cloudiness is not increasing. Further, the depth of the westerly winds also should increase to sustain rainfall activity,” Mohapatra told ET.

Private forecaster disagrees
Separately, private forecaster Skymet Weather Services said the monsoon had arrived in Kerala on Sunday, as it had predicted.

“By and large, all parameters have satisfied the required threshold, essentially the rainfall and depth and speed of westerly winds over the Southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean,” Skymet said in a statement.

Last year, IMD initially predicted the arrival of the monsoon on June 5. The date was revised to June 1, when the monsoon actually reached Kerala, aided by the formation of Cyclone Nisarga.

Global meteorological factors bode well for the Indian monsoon season this year. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has ruled out the likelihood of the rain-disrupting El Nino phenomenon over the next six months. Meteorologists said a low probability of El Nino is certainly good news for the monsoon, although the complex weather system depends on many other factors.

If the June-September monsoon is normal, farmers struggling with supply disruption during the second wave of Covid-19 can expect a good summer-sown harvest, which would lift India’s economic sentiment and rural demand for goods including two-wheelers, gold, consumer goods, cars, and tractors.

In its stage one forecast issued last month, IMD had that they are expecting a normal monsoon at 98% of the long-performing average. An updated forecast is awaited.