Modi, Muizzu & masala: How Maldives went from 'India Out' to strategic warmth

When PM Modi lands in the Maldives on Friday for a state visit, he will be greeted not as an outsider, but as the Guest of Honour at the island nation’s 60th Independence Day celebrations.

Just two years ago, such a scenario would have seemed unlikely. Today, it marks a dramatic shift in bilateral equations, underscoring the quiet resilience of India’s strategic diplomacy.

"Patience has its benefits; it helps if you don't give in to the compulsion and expectation to retaliate against each provocation," a senior source told TOI.

Turning the tables

President Mohamed Muizzu swept to power in 2023 on the back of an “India Out” campaign, signalling what many feared would be a souring of ties.

His ministers had publicly criticised India and even targeted PM Modi in a bid to play to nationalist sentiments. The defeat of pro-India President Ibrahim Solih further intensified concerns that Maldives—historically a close ally—was pivoting away from New Delhi.

But instead of reacting to provocation, India chose a policy of “strategic restraint.”

PM Modi was the first world leader to congratulate Muizzu on his election win. And now, just months later, Muizzu is rolling out the red carpet for Modi’s visit—a clear sign that political rhetoric has yielded to diplomatic pragmatism.

Diplomacy backed by development

India’s consistent and quiet support to Maldives during economic distress laid the groundwork for this diplomatic turnaround.

In 2024, New Delhi extended a $400 million emergency financial package and a Rs 3,000 crore currency swap to stabilize the Maldivian economy. Investments totalling over $450 million are already underway in infrastructure, trade, education, water and sanitation.

Muizzu himself acknowledged India’s role during his India visit in November, stating: “India is a key partner in the socio-economic and infrastructure development of the Maldives, and has stood by the Maldives during our times of need.”

Among the flagship projects is the Greater Male Connectivity Project, a transformative infrastructure venture linking several islands and boosting economic mobility.

Masala diplomacy meets maritime security

But this visit isn’t just symbolic—it’s strategically significant.

According to report by ET, Maldives and India are expected to deepen defence and maritime cooperation, particularly in combating drug trafficking across the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. President Muizzu has declared the drug menace a national priority, and India is likely to offer greater support through naval collaboration and intelligence sharing.

Maldives is already a member of the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC)—a regional initiative led by India to tackle maritime safety, terrorism, cyber threats, and disaster relief. The CSC has evolved into a crucial platform for multilateral cooperation, with Sri Lanka, Mauritius, and Maldives as core members, and Seychelles and Bangladesh as observers.

Trade talks, treasury bills, & economic integration

As part of the ongoing economic engagement, India and Maldives are in talks for a Free Trade Agreement and a broader investment pact, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed earlier this week.

He also noted India’s sustained subscription to Maldivian treasury bills through the State Bank of India, underlining the financial umbilical cord that links the two nations.

Several Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) are likely to be signed during the prime minister's visit on Friday, covering areas from infrastructure to capacity building. These deals aim to accelerate regional integration and fortify economic stability in the archipelago.

A visit rich in symbolism and strategy

This will be PM Modi’s third state visit to the Maldives—but the first since Muizzu took office.

It comes not just as a bilateral gesture but as a regional statement of India’s enduring influence, even amid political fluctuations.

The timing couldn’t be more symbolic—commemorating both 60 years of Maldivian independence and six decades of diplomatic ties with India. By inviting Modi as Guest of Honour, Male has sent a clear signal: despite the turbulence of recent years, India remains a trusted partner in Maldives' journey ahead