Meteorological conditions around the world point to normal monsoon for India

Meteorological conditions around the world point to a normal monsoon for India, which augurs well for the country as about two-thirds of the people depend directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihood.

“It doesn't look like a drought year across India,” said Jason Nicholls, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather in Pennsylvania. “We are leaning toward a close to normal monsoon overall for the nation.”

The La Nina phenomenon, which provides a boost to the Indian monsoon, is drawing to a close, international forecasters said.


"The 2020–21 La Nina is nearing its end, with most oceanic indicators of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) now at neutral levels," said the widely-respected Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

India has seen excess rainfall over the past two years, but ENSO-neutral conditions are better than El Nino conditions, which have historically brought droughts to India.

BOM has also noted that another phenomenon called the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has turned neutral, which bodes well for normal monsoon rainfall. The phenomenon refers to the difference in temperature between different parts of the Indian Ocean.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is expected to issue its formal monsoon forecast in late April.