‘Major food crisis’ looms in coming months: S Jaishankar

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has warned of an impending “major food crisis” in the coming months, compounding severe global fertiliser shortages triggered by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia. Speaking during a conversation hosted at the Asia Society on Monday, Jaishankar highlighted the severe strain these geopolitical tensions are placing on Global South economies, describing the overall situation as “very very stressful.”

“… this is a big concern for us, which is, if you look at these two conflicts, the Ukraine and now the Iran-Gulf conflict, they've actually had a devastating impact on Global South economies,” Jaishankar noted.

Addressing the growing volatility in energy markets, Jaishankar emphasized that global supply chains are under double pressure from both physical insecurity and diplomatic maneuvering. He cautioned that political interference during a period of tight market conditions risks driving up fuel prices when stabilization is urgently needed.


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“So part of it is actually the security of oil supplies, and part of it is the politics of oil supplies, and they are feeding into each other, and they are creating a double crisis or an aggravated crisis,” he explained, adding that if “people play politics with it, that adds to the complications in the market.”

The Minister expressed acute concern over agricultural inputs and grain shipments, pointing to disrupted maritime corridors and impacted production centers in key regions.

"We are today looking at a situation where some of the major grain exporters will not be able to send out their shipments, particularly out to the Black Sea," Jaishankar stated.

He further noted that global fertiliser production has been heavily disrupted because key producers are situated in West Asia and Russia. Coupled with severe climate disruptions, the cascading impacts threaten global food security.

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Combined with impacts of climate patterns like a super El Nino, Jaishankar said, “there is going to be a major food crisis probably in the coming months. So if you have energy as a big crunch, and then food and fertilisers on top of it, and finance because every time there's a conflict, money moves towards safe harbours and away from the Global South, the net result of it has been really very very stressful.”

Critiquing narrow geopolitical decision-making, Jaishankar insisted that major powers cannot dismiss the unintended fallout of their actions on developing nations.

“Countries should not be so self-centred that you're in your own world and take your decision and say, ‘Well, it was not my intention to make your life difficult’,” he remarked, stressing that “sound common sense” should ensure the basic needs of vulnerable countries are not neglected to the point of acute distress. “And that is a concern that we have.”

Jaishankar warned that energy shortages inevitably lead to broader economic and political volatility, drawing parallels to recent shifts in South Asia. “We have already seen it after the Ukraine war. We saw in our neighbourhood the direct result of that in political instability, and my fear is what is happening in Iran and the Gulf is going to feed, is going to aggravate,” he cautioned.

Regarding how developing nations will navigate these escalating pressures, Jaishankar pointed out that responses will vary depending on national resilience and autonomy.

“Some others would find it harder to do so. So those of us who are autonomous, we'd like to see more of us who are autonomous. But it’s not a black and white scenario. It would depend on the issue and the stakes involved. There'll be cases where countries would make adjustments. There'll be cases where they would fight back,” he said.