Lockdowns ineffective, ramping up vaccinations only way to control second wave: SBI Research

Lockdowns are ineffective in controlling the spread of Covid-19 and ramping up vaccinations was the only way to reign in the second wave, according to a State Bank of India (SBI) Research report released on Thursday.

Total cases in India are likely to touch 2.5 million as the resurgence is expected to stretch for a period of 100 days from February 15, the report said.

Although global experience showed that the second wave came with much higher intensity than the first, as was being seen in parts of India, the country would be able to manage the situation better with the presence of the vaccine, it said.


According to the report, India had the infrastructure to increase daily inoculations to 10 million compared to the current 3.4 million jabs per day.

Assuming people were more willing to receive the vaccine and if the Centre ramped up daily doses to 4.5 million, it could see the entire population above 45 years getting vaccinated within four months, the report said.

The loss to livelihood arising out of restrictions and lockdowns was far greater than its benefits, SBI Research said citing prior independent studies.

While such restrictions temporarily reduced death rates, it did not improve the aggregate outcome of the influenza pandemic of 1918, as lifting of restrictions led to a resurgence in cases.

“Thus increasing the speed of vaccination is the only way to win the battle against COVID-19 pandemic,” the report said.

As of Thursday, 53 million people have received the vaccine, according to official data.

The resurgence in cases and ensuing restrictions and lockdowns were already impacting mobility as all categories of Google’s mobility indices recorded a decline, the report said.

SBI Research suggested that contracts for vaccine procurement should include clauses for installation of new capacity for deployment and late penalties for any delay in delivery of doses.