J&K: Peace and stability, collateral damage of Pahalgham attack, Indo-Pak clash and Red Fort blast

Hopes of peace and stability in Jammu and Kashmir were shattered yet again in 2025, with events such as the Pahalgam attack in April, followed by the brief India-Pakistan war the next month, and the Red Fort blast in Delhi in November dealing serial setbacks to the region.

These events not only changed the political and security scenario on the ground but also impacted the economic and social climate of J&K. The shadow of the passing year is likely to haunt most of 2026, as uncertainty curdled into paranoia across the Union Territory.

The fact that many tourist destinations such as Doodhpathri and Yus Marg are still out of bounds for visitors, and trekking is not allowed on most of the mountain ranges across Kashmir Valley, underscores the ground reality in the region.

Security Scenario

“In a place like Kashmir, security and stability is a myth. Even though we have controlled the recruitment of locals into the militant ranks, street protests have disappeared and over ground worker (OGW) support has been paralysed, foreigners operating from dense forests in higher reaches have emerged as a major challenge,” a senior security official told ET on condition of anonymity.

The armed forces had claimed that infiltration from across the border had been controlled significantly, especially after August 5, 2019, but reports of fresh infiltrations were a frequent feature this year.

A multi-agency report in November put the total number of local militants operating across J&K in single digits while the number of “foreigners” active here was about 150, with around 70 of them in Kashmir Valley and the rest in Jammu division. A senior official said that in December infiltration was reported from Samba in Jammu and Machil of Kupwara in Kashmir.

“Around 50 infiltrators managed to cross the border during Operation Sindoor,” said a senior official, who did not wish to be identified.

“Pakistan has changed the tactics for now. Infiltrators no longer rely on locals. Old OGW networks are no longer used. These infiltrators carry survival kits and visit any household near the forest for food items only once,” said a senior police official.

A senior army official said there are reports that these infiltrators even “pay money to households or shopkeepers” from where they take eatables or other items.

“They are not here to get exhausted by engaging in small terrorist acts on a daily basis. They wait for orders from Pakistan to do something big. This is what we saw in Sonamarg attack, Reasi attack and then in Baisaran attack,” a senior BJP leader told ET on condition of anonymity, adding he feared that they might target non-Muslims again. “They know killing non-Muslims here creates spectacle and gets much more attention.”

An official said that the trend is to “stay silent, creating a deceptive prolonged lull, followed by an impactful and provocative incident”.

The Red Fort blast, whose tentacles extend to Afghanistan, according to officials, has added to the challenges of the security forces. “These self-radicalised, educated individuals with no direct connection with any handler in Pakistan are a major concern for us. We don’t know what is going on in their minds and what they are watching on the internet,” said a senior police official, “This is why we are surveilling the social media spaces and usage of new applications.”

After the Red Fort blast police have questioned, examined and detained hundreds of OGWs, suspects and youngsters with “interesting browsing history” or applications like Signal to crack any potential “sleeper cells” that may be operating across the Valley. “Radicalised Gen Z is the last thing we would want here. For that we have to give them a notional political voice,” said a senior police official.

The J&K Police, National Investigating Agency and other probing organisations are actively carrying out raids and ensuring attachment of properties of people accused of being involved in any “anti-national” activity.

For the common people in J&K, the central issue for discussion at almost every social, political or family gathering is whether there is a possibility of another war in 2026.

A recent report from the Concerned Group of Citizens, a voluntary group of citizens led by former Union minister Yashwant Sinha, set up following the protests of 2016, stated that “the alienation had deepened… resentment and anger against the central government had increased and sentiment against the country is spreading widely”.

Political Scenario

A student from the Central University of Kashmir said he would better talk in metaphors, as he was among the few summoned by the police a few months ago for his social media posts. He compared the region with the city of Thebes in the Athenian tragedy Oedipus Rex by Sophocles. “The city is not healed, our future is uncertain and authority is transferred but trust is broken,” the student told ET. Quoting Tiresias, the blind prophet in the city of Thebes, he said, “Truth here is dangerous, not liberating.”

The hopelessness of the student is representative of the enormous challenges J&K is confronting, with about 65 per cent of its population below 35 years of age. The non-fulfilment of constitutional promises—most recently the restoration of statehood—waning freedom of expression, lack of employment opportunities, inflation and increasing inequality in government jobs have led to widespread disenchantment among the people.

Both chief minister Omar Abdullah, who has been in office for more than one year now, and lieutenant governor (LG) Manoj Sinha, the Centre’s appointee, who has been in office for more than five years, have failed to deliver what they promised.

Abdullah often calls himself a “half CM” who is working in the “worst form of the diarchy rule” where the LG is not allowing him to operate even under the purview of J&K Reorganization Act, 2019. With the enactment of this law, the erstwhile state of J&K was downgraded and divided into two UTs of J&K and Ladakh and Articles 370 and 35 (A) were abrogated. Sinha, on his part, blames Abdullah for “excuses” not to work. However, the LG has not signed the file of ‘Transaction of Business Rules’ prepared by the CM’s office, which clarifies “who does what” in “a diarchial setup”.

“Outrage is attractive but cannot be a policy,” said a senior leader of the ruling National Conference (NC), adding that “people have to show patience and can judge us after we complete the term”.

However, a senior leader of the opposition PDP said that Abdullah lacks even “the basic inspiration or courage of will to fight for a better deal from New Delhi”.

Meanwhile, all parties in Kashmir which have aligned with the BJP at least once, be it the NC, PDP or PC, label each other as ‘B-Team of the BJP. “There is a political churning inside all the political parties and all are focusing on their newfound Muslimness and discourse of civilisational erasure. BJP at least has realigned its rhetoric,” said a senior political analyst, who did not wish to be identified.

The BJP has consolidated its position in Jammu, while opposition parties in Kashmir, such as the PDP, PC and AIP, are rediscovering themselves and struggling to find a “new binding force” and a “new narrative” for themselves to rally around. The Congress is both “nowhere and everywhere”, said the analyst.

A senior official in the administration said that nobody takes the opinions of elected representatives seriously. “Even the decisions of the council of ministers carry no weight. Officers know where the power flows from. It is Lok Bhawan. We know that the existing government is weak despite the legitimacy of the election.” said an official.

Despite this shrinking space to operate, Abdullah will never divorce power, said Muhammad Shafi Dar, a shopkeeper in Srinagar’s Fateh Kadal. “The only truth about NC is that it has never resigned from the chair. They either exploded internally or were humiliatingly removed. We have to wait for either of this to happen,” he said.

Come 2026 and the political narrative for restoration of statehood and “hollow slogans” for restoration of special status by a section of the opposition are bound to get another push, according to experts.

“Statehood cannot be restored, as of now. If we do so, it will bring back the bad old days of street violence and hegemony of Kashmiri leaders,” said another BJP leader, who wished not to be identified.

He said the “goal is peace and rapprochement” but on the “terms and conditions” of the central government. “Look what we did to Hurriyat. They are either dead or in jail. Others have written apology letters and sought pardon. They have been reduced to nothing. Mirwaiz has removed Hurriyat from his social media handle. We will not allow the parties who fight elections to exploit that gap and space the absence of Hurriyat has created. We will erase that space, for which we are making so much effort,” he said.

Economic Aches

Despite promises made after August 5, 2019, that foreign and national investments will change the destiny of J&K, the region is struggling with the basic issues of unemployment and inflation and a scarce government exchequer.

This year's Pahalgam attack pushed the tourism industry back into an abyss, with no major tourist footfall since April. Hoteliers, tour and travel operators and businesses related to traditional Kashmiri Art have suffered massively. Many of the businessmen had borrowed money from banks and financial institutions to expand their operations which they are unable to pay back due to the loss of a whole business year.

“Tourism industry lost all the momentum and the money we had earned in 2022, 2023 and 2024, after emerging from the shocks of the 2019 curfew and communication blockade and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021,” said Tanveer Ahmad Jan, a hotelier.

Similarly, horticulture, a Rs 10,000-crore industry which contributes about 9 per cent to J&K’s gross domestic product, suffered losses due to September floods and closure of national highway connecting Kashmir with Jammu following rainfall and landslides. The losses were estimated between Rs 200-1,000 crore, depending on the data shared by farmers and the government.

An aspiring entrepreneur, who has applied for “land on lease in an industrial estate” set up following the new industrial policy, said that his file along with several others has been pending for more than three years now. “How can we function here?” he said.