ET World Leaders Forum 2026: ‘Just in time’ is over, says Jaishankar on why a riskier world needs a ‘just in case’ approach

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said the world is going through a period of heightened uncertainty as the old global order unravels and a new one has yet to take shape, making it imperative for countries and businesses to build resilience into their economic strategies.

Speaking at the ET World Leaders Forum, Jaishankar said the succession of crises in recent years, including the Covid pandemic, the Ukraine conflict, tariff disputes, market-access issues and natural disasters, reflects a broader shift in the global order.

"Why have we had so many crises in quick succession? I mean, COVID is a slightly different issue. I mean, I don't want to get into that debate. But why? Why do we have that? We are having it because really, the old global order is kind of declining or unraveling," he said.


"New one hasn't come. So this is a sort of a twilight zone," he added.

Also Read: ‘Distrust and diversify’: Jaishankar’s mantra for businesses as global risks reshape supply chains

Jaishankar compared the current global environment to an increasingly unregulated market, where countries are testing the limits of what they can do.

"Now imagine if now suddenly everything is open. There will be countries who really push and say, 'Okay, let me push the envelope and see what I get,'" he said.

"What has actually happened is the global order has unraveled, so that's opened up many more possibilities, including much more risky behavior."

He said changes in the global energy landscape have also altered the nature of economic vulnerabilities.

"And secondly, because you know the global energy scenario has changed, that countries who are big importers of energy are exporters of energy," Jaishankar said.

‘Just in case’ era

Jaishankar said changes in energy markets, technology and military capabilities have made the global environment more risk-prone.

"Energy has changed. Technology has changed, including military technology. As I said, weaponization is more. So the propensity to take risks-it's a much riskier market," he said.

He said countries and businesses need to incorporate risk management and de-risking into their decision-making.

"I think we need to hardwire the risks into our thinking and make de-risking almost like a second hat."

"I would say the just in just in time era is over, and the just in case era is clearly in place," Jaishankar said.

"So every country, every enterprise now has to plan just in case what happens when things go wrong because there is an empirical basis now to assume that somewhere new risks will arise."

De-risking can create new risks

Jaishankar cautioned that efforts to reduce dependence on one source or geography could create new vulnerabilities elsewhere.

"Are there risks in de-risking? Yes, there are," he said, citing energy as an example.

He said shifting energy sourcing from one source to another could create a different but equally significant exposure. The same applies to the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, he said, as renewable technologies also have their own sourcing risks.

"So, the reality of this world is, while every problem may have a solution, many solutions also have problems," Jaishankar said.

"If you think you're getting out of one situation, think through what you're getting into, because that could open you up for more."

‘Make in India’ as de-risking strategy

Jaishankar said strengthening domestic capabilities could help India reduce its exposure to external disruptions.

"To me, the most de-risked approach is the approach the prime minister was talking about yesterday from this very stage, which is make in India, design in India, invent in India, collaborate from India, partner from India, GCC from India."

"The more you do within a space which you can predict, calculate, control, motivate, the better off you are."

He also said a stable India could contribute to greater global stability.

"To the extent of saying a stable India is will actually bring stability to the world."

Trade agreements as part of de-risking

Jaishankar said India's trade agreements with multiple partners could form an important part of its broader de-risking strategy.

He pointed to the India-EU FTA, saying negotiations that had moved slowly for years had gained momentum as both sides found it in their interest to move forward.

"From our point of view today, I would argue that multiple trade agreements with the right partners on the right terms, obviously."

He said agreements with Europe, the UK and potentially Canada, along with a bilateral trade agreement with the US, would form part of India's broader effort to diversify its economic relationships.

"For me, a trade agreement and FTA with with Europe, with UK, hopefully with Canada at some point, a bilateral trade agreement with the US. All of these would be part of our derisking strategy," Jaishankar said.