Israel votes tomorrow: What’s at stake for India as Bibi faces tough fight

“More than a friend, a brother,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said of Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the Indian leader’s visit in February. Modi, in turn, described the India-Israel bond as one built on “trust, innovation and a shared commitment to peace and progress”, possibly mirroring the warmth shared by the two countries.

But as Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, the result, for India, matters beyond the political fate of “Bibi”, as Netanyahu is popularly known. Defence cooperation, trade negotiations, technology partnerships and India's delicate balancing act between Israel and Iran will all remain important considerations.

Netanyahu's Likud party has lost ground in opinion polls since the Hamas attack, although the contest has narrowed as voting approaches. Neither his coalition nor the opposition has a clear path to the 61 seats needed for a majority in Israel's 120-member parliament, the Knesset. The result could therefore lead to prolonged coalition negotiations rather than an immediate change of government.


Also Read: Israel election 2026: Netanyahu might be finished but his policies toward the Palestinians will largely endure

For New Delhi, the bigger question is whether a change in Israeli leadership may alter the pace of bilateral cooperation or Israel's approach to a region where India has several competing strategic and economic interests.

India-Israel ties unlikely to change dramatically

India and Israel elevated their relationship to a “Special Strategic Partnership for Peace, Innovation and Prosperity” during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Israel in February 2026. The two countries agreed to deepen cooperation in defence, trade, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, semiconductors, agriculture, water management and space.

An Israeli author and political analyst, Alec Pollard, has said the partnership is likely to endure regardless of the election outcome.

“Whoever wins the election, Israel and India will continue to be good friends and to be close,” Pollard told PTI Videos.

He said India's relationship with Israel is highly valued and that defence and technology cooperation provide a foundation for continuity. However, a change of leadership could introduce a new dimension to bilateral ties, depending on whether the next prime minister establishes a rapport with Modi.

The distinction matters because the relationship has expanded beyond the personal ties between the two leaders. Agreements covering defence, investment, technology and trade have created institutional links that can support cooperation even if Israel's political leadership changes.

Defence and technology remain central to the partnership

Defence is one of the most important pillars of India-Israel ties. The partnership includes military equipment, research and development, technology sharing and opportunities for joint manufacturing.

The two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on defence cooperation on November 4, 2025, to strengthen industrial and technological collaboration. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel in February 2026, they agreed to deepen cooperation across defence platforms, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and other critical technologies.

Also Read: Israel election 2026: Who is challenging Benjamin Netanyahu for power?

The technology push extends beyond military equipment. Both sides agreed to raise their contributions to the India-Israel Joint Research Calls from $1 million to $1.5 million each, taking the combined contribution to $3 million. They also welcomed a plan to establish an India-Israel Centre of Excellence in Cybersecurity in India.

Semiconductors, quantum computing, biotechnology, agriculture and water management are among the other areas identified for closer cooperation, according to the joint statement issued during Modi’s visit. The two countries also agreed to deepen collaboration in AI through a dedicated cooperation agreement.

The Tehran factor: India's balancing act between Israel and Iran

The election is taking place against a wider regional backdrop that makes India's diplomatic choices more complicated. New Delhi has strengthened its strategic partnership with Israel while maintaining relations with Iran, which remains important for regional connectivity and India's access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

The Chabahar port project on Iran's southeastern coast was designed to provide an alternative route to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. India has invested in the development of the port and signed a 10-year contract in May 2024 for the operation of the Shahid Beheshti terminal, as ET Bureau had previously reported.

However, the project faces uncertainty following the expiry of a conditional US sanctions waiver on April 26, 2026. The Indian government has said it remains in touch with relevant stakeholders to address the implications. India has fulfilled its $120 million financial commitment under the port agreement, but the future course of its involvement remains a matter of discussion.

India's engagement with Iran has also continued at the leadership level. Modi met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in New Delhi in September 2026, with the two leaders discussing regional developments. Modi stressed the importance of protecting freedom of navigation, international commerce and the safety of seafarers amid the wider conflict.

For India, instability involving Israel and Iran can have consequences well beyond diplomacy. Disruptions to shipping, higher transport and insurance costs, and uncertainty around energy supplies can affect businesses and trade. Any escalation could also complicate connectivity plans and India's economic engagement with the region.

What the Israeli election could mean for regional security

Netanyahu's opponents have criticised his handling of the October 7 Hamas attack, the government's approach to military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews and Israel's growing international isolation, as per reports by AP.

Pollard said the Hamas attack had become a central issue in the election because many Israelis hold Netanyahu responsible for the security failure.

“Netanyahu has been trying to sort of offload that blame onto the security establishment, onto the intelligence establishment, even his political rivals,” he said, according to TOI.

The analyst said Netanyahu had also taken credit for military successes since the attack, leaving voters to decide how they assess his record.

Also Read: Resumption of war with US, Israel won't change Tehran's stance: Iran FM Araghchi

“So the question is, will Israel believe that version or not? And that's going to be quite crucial because a lot of people have been personally burned by this,” Pollard added.

Pollard also pointed to the debate over exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews, particularly as reservists face repeated deployments.

“Equal conscription of everybody is a major focus. Those who don't serve shouldn't be able to benefit from the welfare state. But the issue is more about the ultra-Orthodox because they're core members of Netanyahu's coalition,” he said.

Other issues include demands for a national commission of inquiry into the October 7 attack and opposition to Netanyahu's proposed judicial reforms. His far-right coalition partners have also faced criticism over policies towards Palestinians.

Pollard said Netanyahu had presented himself as a leader willing to withstand international pressure, while opponents argued that his coalition had contributed to Israel's growing isolation.

Pollard said a change of government would not bring major changes to Gaza policy, as Israel would not want to return to the security conditions that existed before October 7.

“There was a ceasefire deal with US President Trump, which said that the hostages will be returned. That did happen, and Hamas will disarm. That did not happen. So as far as Israel is concerned, essentially that conflict is not over,” he said.

Trade and investment are another test for India-Israel ties

Beyond defence and security, trade negotiations will be an important measure of whether the partnership continues to deepen.

India and Israel are working towards a proposed free trade agreement, with negotiations covering goods, services, rules of origin, intellectual property and customs procedures. A deal could improve market access and create more opportunities for businesses in both countries.

As of FY26, bilateral merchandise trade between India and Israel stood at US$ 3.93 billion.

India exports products including engineering goods, chemicals, textiles and machinery to Israel, while imports include chemicals, machinery, electronics and other industrial products. The two countries have also established a bilateral investment agreement intended to provide greater certainty and protection for investors.

The next Israeli government will determine how these initiatives progress. For Indian businesses, the priority will be to ensure that political uncertainty does not delay negotiations or cooperation in emerging technologies.

The relationship also has a direct people-to-people dimension with Netanyahu-Modi bonhomie at the heart of it. During Modi's February visit, the two governments discussed employment opportunities for Indian workers in Israel, including construction, caregiving, manufacturing and high-technology sectors. The governments said up to 50,000 additional Indian workers could arrive over five years, while also stressing the need to safeguard their rights and safety.

Whether the political landscape in Jerusalem shifts or stabilises, much will ultimately depend on the next Israeli government’s ability to maintain momentum in the bilateral ties with India amid the broader strategic alignments and realignments across West Asia.