India's monsoon slips back into dry phase, pushing rainfall deficit up to 18%

India's southwest monsoon has slipped back into a weak phase after a brief spell of widespread rainfall narrowed the seasonal deficit earlier this month, with the nationwide rainfall shortfall widening to 18% as of Sunday, TOI reported on Monday.

The recent burst of rain had reduced the cumulative deficit from 40% at the end of June to 14% by July 9, but the return of subdued rainfall has reversed some of those gains. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast subdued rainfall activity across the plains of northwest and west-central India, as well as southern Peninsular India, over the next six to seven days.

The prolonged dry spell threatens to slow the momentum in kharif sowing, which had picked up following last week's rains. Despite the improvement, the sown area for all major crops remains below last year's levels, largely because the country's monsoon core agricultural belt — where farming is heavily dependent on seasonal rainfall due to limited irrigation — continues to record a significant rainfall deficit.


As of July 12, 15 states, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, had recorded rainfall deficits of 20% or more, with shortages ranging up to 73%.

Regionally, east and northeast India remain the worst affected, reporting a 37% rainfall deficit, driven by weak monsoon activity over Bihar, Jharkhand and five northeastern states.

While the IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over the Northeast, West Bengal and Bihar over the next two to three days, along with isolated heavy rainfall over eastern Uttar Pradesh during the next four to five days, the expected showers are unlikely to significantly narrow the seasonal deficit.

The weak monsoon has coincided with a strong El Nino year. El Nino, a climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and hotter summers in India. It occurs every two to seven years.

(With inputs from TOI)