India braces weak October rains as El Nino drags monsoon to fourth-lowest since 2001

India’s southwest monsoon ended with rainfall 12.6% below average, with the country receiving 759.4 mm against the normal 868.6 mm, making it the fourth-lowest monsoon rainfall since 2001, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.

The weather office also forecast below-normal rainfall in October, with the country likely to receive only 85% of its long-period average (LPA) rainfall for the month. Most parts of India are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during the October-December period, suggesting that the rainfall deficit could persist beyond the southwest monsoon season.

Also read: India's monsoon deficit widens; El Nino strengthens, positive IOD offers some relief: Report


The June-September monsoon recorded 87.4% of its LPA, with the deficit driven in part by El Nino conditions over the tropical Pacific that emerged in June and strengthened through the season, the IMD said.

El Nino deepens, June sees sharpest rainfall deficit

The IMD said strong El Nino conditions are currently prevailing and may persist until March 2027. El Nino, a warming phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is generally associated with reduced monsoon rainfall in India.

The rainfall deficit was highest in June at 35.4%, followed by August at 16.3% and September at 7.6%. July was the only month to record above-normal rainfall, with a surplus of 1%.

The monsoon could have ended with an even larger deficit but for the emergence of low-pressure systems during the season, according to IMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.

“There were 14 low pressure systems that formed this season, and 77 low-pressure system days were witnessed against the normal 57 days,” Mohapatra said.

The IMD had initially forecast on April 13 that the country would receive 92% of its LPA rainfall during the monsoon. It subsequently revised the forecast to 90% of LPA on May 29, with a model error of 4%.

LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded over a region during a specified period over a long-term reference period. For October, the LPA based on rainfall data from 1971 to 2020 is around 75.4 mm.

Also read: El Nino may turn 'very strong' by late 2026: IRI; experts see elevated risk for India

Monsoon withdrawal to continue, October likely warmer

The monsoon has so far withdrawn from most parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, the whole of Delhi, and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, Mohapatra said.

Conditions are favourable for its withdrawal from most parts of central and northwest India during the first week of October, followed by most parts of east and northeast India and some parts of north peninsular India during the second week.

“The average rainfall over the country during the month is likely to be below normal — 85 per cent of the LPA,” Mohapatra said.

The IMD expects most parts of the country to receive below-normal rainfall in October, while some areas of northwest India, southern parts of peninsular India and isolated areas of east India could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

Both maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal during October, the weather office said.

The southwest monsoon is critical for India's agriculture and water resources, making the season's rainfall performance an important indicator for soil moisture, reservoir levels and farm activity going into the post-monsoon period.