India's monsoon deficit widens to 15%, strengthening El Nino poses farm risk: Report

New Delhi: India's monsoon rainfall deficit has widened to 15 per cent of the long-period average, while strengthening El Nino conditions pose an elevated risk to rainfall in the coming days, ICICI Bank Research said in its latest agriculture report.

The report, however, said the impact on kharif crops has been partly contained as sowing is largely complete and surplus rainfall in July provided some cushion. "With sowing of kharif crops largely over, impact of below normal monsoon has been mitigated to some extent because of surplus rainfall recorded in July," it said.

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Cumulative rainfall stood at 704 mm up to September 21, 15 per cent below the long-period average. The deficit has been particularly sharp in South India, at 27 per cent, followed by East India at 26 per cent. Central and Northwest India recorded relatively better rainfall, though they were still 6 per cent and 10 per cent below normal, respectively.

The report flagged strengthening El Nino conditions as a key risk for the agricultural outlook. The Nino 3.4 index rose to 2.53, above 2.14 recorded during the corresponding period in 2015.

At the same time, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index moved into positive territory at 0.7, which "should partly offset some of the negative impact associated with El Nino in the coming days", the report said.

Kharif sowing stood at 110.4 million hectares as of September 18, down 1.3 per cent from 111.9 million hectares a year earlier, although it has reached 100 per cent of the normal area. Rice acreage, the largest kharif crop, declined 3.7 per cent to 42.9 million hectares, while pulses and coarse cereals saw higher sowing.

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Water availability remains another area to watch. Reservoir storage was at 71 per cent of total capacity as of September 17, but at around 79.4 per cent of last year's level.

The report noted that improving storage in western, central and eastern regions "could provide some cushion against below normal rainfall", while southern reservoirs remained at just 52 per cent of capacity.

With the southwest monsoon already beginning to withdraw from parts of northwestern India, the strengthening El Nino conditions and uneven rainfall distribution will remain key factors for the agricultural outlook in the coming period.