India’s heat exposes a fragile grid as energy crunch deepens

India is preparing for a blistering summer until monsoon rains arrive in June, with above-normal heat already straining power grids at a time when the country is grappling with energy shortages. Heat waves are forecast to persist for longer than usual in densely populated states of western and eastern India, the country’s weather forecaster said on Friday.

Areas like Gujarat, Maharashtra and parts of the foothills of the Himalayas will see more days of unusually high temperatures in May, typically the peak of the pre-monsoon summer.

Also Read: India in the hot seat as blackout risks rise with temperature


Other regions will also witness heat wave days but for shorter periods, the India Meteorological Department said in a briefing that overall predicted normal to below-normal maximum temperatures for this month. It had earlier forecast a higher than usual number of heat days for May and June.

The news will bring scant relief to a country struggling to cope under the combined pressure of warmer-than-usual April days and the fallout from the war in the Persian Gulf. With vital energy suppliers cut off from world markets, India has been left short of crude, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas, used for cooking.

Data from digital air-quality monitoring platform AQI earlier this week showed that every one of the 50 hottest cities in the world were in India.

“India occupied the entire list, from rank 1 to rank 50,” AQI said in a report. “This is not a normal April. And it demands a serious, data-grounded reckoning.”

The rankings are based on sustained temperatures through 24 hours of the day on April 27. A city can report a scorching afternoon maximum, but could rank lower if it cools off during the nights, AQI said, explaining the methodology.

At the top of the list was Banda, an arid town in the water-starved Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh. According to AQI, it hit a top temperature of 46.2C (just over 115F) during the day — but its lowest, which typically comes after the midnight, was 34.7C, a level higher than what most of Europe considers a dangerous summer heat wave. (IMD put the maximum on the day at an even loftier 47.6C.)

All the while, heat is pushing up electricity demand to unprecedented levels, triggering blackouts as infrastructure and generation struggle to cope. Temperatures have surged beyond 40C (104F) in April — punishing levels, given the humidity — and nights offer only mild relief, forcing residents to run cooling appliances around the clock.

Also Read: IMD sees above-normal heatwave Maydays

The IMD said above-normal minimum temperatures were likely in May over many regions.

“The impact of climate change is more on night temperatures. In the long-term, the temperatures are seeing a rising trend,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at IMD, adding cloudy conditions trapped heat and exacerbated the problem.

The resulting demand for round-the-clock power is testing the ability of India’s electricity system to provide uninterrupted supply.

The rapid addition of renewable capacity over the past decade and the more recent revival of coal-fired generation have ensured there is enough power-station capacity to meet daytime requirements. But without solar, which accounts for about 30% of total generation capacity, nights are a challenge.

All the more so with LNG imports hampered by the war, starving gas-powered plants that can provide a vital bridge. Almost 21 gigawatts of coal and nuclear power capacity, meanwhile, were under maintenance shutdowns as of Tuesday, according to government data, mostly due to forced outages.

Since temperatures shot up this April, India has reported night-time shortfalls of as high as 5.4 gigawatts — the equivalent of serving roughly 2.7 million rural homes.

El Nino conditions are expected to prevail during the monsoon season from June to September, the IMD said during its Friday briefing, suggesting a risk to rainfall that could further stress the power grid due to increased use of electricity for farm irrigation and a prolonged dependence on cooling.

With blackouts becoming more frequent, residents have aired complaints on social media and, in some cases reported by local media, on the streets. In Punjab, among the earliest provinces to be hit by scheduled blackouts, the main opposition party Shiromani Akali Dal has organized a protest.

Another simpler factor is also leaving Indian households in the dark — the impact of high heat on power equipment, as overloading compounds stress created by sweltering temperatures.

“Consumers need to be more diligent,” said Sarnath Ganguly, senior vice president at Noida Power Co. Ltd., which distributes power in Noida, an industrial city bordering New Delhi. Distribution companies should identify overloaded transformers and improve capacity well before the summer, he said.

“Both sides need to maintain such discipline to prevent outages,” Ganguly said.