India, Russia prevented global economy from collapsing: IMEMO chief

Russia and India overcame all difficulties together and essentially prevented the global economy from collapsing and created a new model of global economic interaction. The model also created a global network helping countries in the Global South to receive resources at affordable prices, Prof Alexander Dynkin, President of the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), told ET's Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury ahead of Russia's premier foreign policy platform -- The 12th "Primakov Readings" in Moscow on June 23-24.

1. The 2026 edition of Primakov Readings is being organised in the backdrop of epoch making global events including the peace deal between USA and Iran after over three months of conflict. How much will this development shape the proceedings of Primakov Readings?

The XII Primakov Readings, the theme of which is "A world without rules: a power game?" , take place at a time when the 100-day war between the United States of America and Iran has come to an end. Naturally, we did not time our Readings to the likely end of this conflict, although the hope that this will end will be clear from the results of the 60-day truce and the final negotiations between the United States and Iran, which will take place at this time. But it is obvious that the world is already without rules, and new rules will be formed in the process of some kind of global dynamics. I think that some elements of these new rules are already visible today. I am referring to the formation of such non-Western international organizations as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and the Eurasian Economic Union. A big meeting between Russia and APEC was recently held in Kazan. These are all steps towards the formation of a new world order.


2. What are three key geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges the world faces today in your opinion?

I think that the modern world is facing a much greater number of challenges than the ones you are talking about. But I will try to name three in terms of their dangers and risks. I think the most acute risk is the threat of World War III. And this is due to the fact that history teaches us that every world order arose after a major or world war, for example, the Yalta-Potsdam world order arose after the Second World War. The Versailles World Order after the First World War. The Vienna system of international relations emerged after the Napoleonic Wars. But existential difference with the past – nuclear weapons. The challenge for all of humanity today is to ensure that the world order is formed in the future without a third world war. What are some of the contours of this future world order visible today? I think the first thing is that the world will be polycentric, but this polycentricity will be, as they say, armed, because today global defense spending is growing very rapidly in all countries. Among these centers of the future world order, I see the following sequence: the United States, China, Russia and India. And, of course, there is a large group of powers, the so-called "second level". These are Turkey, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Canada, which are also seeking to strengthen their role in international relations. They can play the role of a stabilizer, or they can create threats and challenges. I see the future world order as a polycentric world order. There is also an alternative view, popular in Beijing, that sometime after 2035 the world will enter a period of new bipolarity, where China and the United States will be the poles. A third scientific concept of a multicivilizational world is emerging. She says that the centers of power of the future world will be grouped around civilizational associations. This is a step towards the famous professor, Samuel Huntington. But today it is difficult to say unequivocally what the world order will be like. I think that none of these systems will exist in their pure form. There will be a synthesis of the things I mentioned. The second conclusion, of course, is geo-economic, because the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hit the entire global economy, global energy, fertilizer supplies, and, accordingly, the harvest of 2027. These effects will be felt in the world until the end of 2026. It is highly likely that some of them will move to 2027 if the Strait of Hormuz is eventually opened. The third type of threat is related to global pandemics, climate change, and the asymmetric growth of demographics in different parts of the world.

3. The war in Ukraine has entered its fourth year. What in your opinion is way forward in addressing the conflict this year? What are Russia's red lines?

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine. It has been going on for quite a long time, and the roots of this conflict go deep into history: into the history of the Soviet Union, into the history of the relatively arbitrary borders drawn on the territory of the former Soviet Union by the ruling elite of that period. We can find similar things in the history of the collapse of the British Empire and the constant conflicts between India and Pakistan. At one time, the Sykes-Picot borders were known, which were actually drawn in a straight line without taking into account the ethnic, religious and national specifics of those regions that fell under this division. You can also recall Yugoslavia and so on. Why has this conflict become prolonged? Because the West is trying its best to lead Ukraine to victory, not realizing that this goal is unattainable. For Russia, the conflict has become an existential one, because Russia's future position in the world largely depends on its outcome. As you know, a certain understanding has already been reached between the Kremlin and the White House in Anchorage. Unfortunately, the White House still does not have enough political resources to implement the сompromises that were reached between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

4. What is your assessment of the state of the Russian economy and prediction for the performance of the economy over the next 2 years?

The Western press is flooded with information about the critical, dramatic state of the Russian economy. If you come to Moscow, St. Petersburg, or any other major Russian city today, you will see a picture that shows that the economy is functioning normally and developing. Of course, the high growth rates that took place in 2023-2024 were due to a powerful budgetary impulse, which was made in connection with the need to dramatically increase production in the military-industrial complex. Today, this momentum has been exhausted, and our economy has returned to a growth trajectory of, say, 2017-2021. The growth rate is low, about 1%, maybe a little more, but I do not know of any other economy in the world that could withstand such severe pressure in the form of 32,000 heavy sanctions against Russia. In my opinion, no economy in the world has withstood such a sanctions storm, including China. What is the response of the Russian economy? This is largely digitalization, the desire for a balanced macroeconomic policy that would create a favorable exchange rate for the development of the Russian economy and at a low Central Bank rate. Such prospects are already visible, because in the first quarter of 2026, inflation dropped to 5.6 percent, and our target is 4% inflation per year. Of course, there is a problem with access to external credit markets, and there are problems with exports, but I have no doubt that our economy, given the enormous experience of existence in crisis conditions that federal regulators, private businesses, and even households have accumulated, is not threatened by any extraordinary events.

5. What has been the biggest achievement in India-Russia strategic partnership in recent years? How can India and Russia create a multipolar world order?

Our greatest achievement is maintaining and developing our strategic partnership amid the waves of sanctions and trade and conventional wars. Russia and India overcame all difficulties together and essentially prevented the global economy from collapsing. Instead, we created a new model of global economic interaction. The model allowed us to develop and test tools and mechanisms for circumventing unilateral restrictions and avoiding blackmail from external players. In addition, it created a global network helping countries in the Global South to receive resources at affordable prices. These resources facilitate the accelerated development of their economies and allows them to strengthen their sovereignty, effectively resisting any manifestations of neocolonialism. This is the main contribution that Russia and India have made and continue to make to the formation of a polycentric world order.

6. India-Russia partnership has opened new areas of economic cooperation in recent years. Besides oil and gas, fertilisers, sunflower oil & coking coal; rare earths, critical minerals, heavy engineering, high-tech collaboration are in focus. What is your opinion in expanding this list?

There are numerous potential areas for expanding our cooperation – IT, biotechnology, medicine and pharmaceuticals, and the chemical industry. But the main task now is to change the very model of our interaction, focusing on the creation of joint ventures, which would intensify mutually beneficial economic activity and leverage our strengths. To accelerate this process, government impetus and support are needed.

7. What are your suggestions for investing Rupee earned by Russian companies under Rupee-Ruble arrangement in India itself for higher profit margin? What can India do to expedite non SWIFT payment channel for Russia?

Several promising areas can be identified, and the port infrastructure is the most interesting one. India is currently implementing the large-scale Sagarmala program to build and modernize port infrastructure—more than 800 projects are needed to provide the Indian economy with a new gateway to the world. Investments in ports will not only generate future profits but will also help cope with sanctions. Second, cutting-edge developments in biotechnology—in both the medical and agricultural sectors. Global demand for medicines will only grow, as will their production in India. At the same time, the Indian agricultural industry, faced with continued population growth and depleted soils, requires new solutions that will reduce irrigation losses and dramatically increase grain production, bringing about a "Second Green Revolution." In fact, most of the projects that Indian authorities are proposing to invest in within the SEZ are potentially profitable.