India navigating multipolar 'age of flux', says Jaishankar; talks on with Russia, Ukraine for safe Black Sea passage

Speaking at the 5th Kautilya Economic Conclave in New Delhi on "India and the World: Adaptive by Design", external affairs minister S Jaishankar said India is in talks with both Russia and Ukraine to secure safe passage for grain and fuel shipments from the Black Sea, after attacks on civilian shipping in July in which some Indian sailors were killed.

He said India regards attacks on civilian shipping as "completely unacceptable", whether in the Black Sea, the Red Sea or the Gulf, and that dialogue and diplomacy remain the way forward to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Black Sea talks


Jaishankar said India protested strongly to both Moscow and Kyiv after the July attacks, and that he personally took the matter up with the foreign ministers of both countries.

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The conversations, he said, began with securing shipping and sailors, but widened after concerns were raised about grain exports, which had largely halted in the Black Sea. Grain could not be treated in isolation, he said, as it was linked to energy, so the talks became broader. "Those conversations are ongoing at this time," he said.

He said Prime Minister Narendra Modi met President Vladimir Putin and then asked him to travel to Kyiv, where he met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his counterpart. He reported back to the PM, and Putin held another conversation with Modi when he was in Delhi for the BRICS summit. India, he said, continues to stay in touch with both sides.

Jaishankar said no one can say with a high degree of confidence that something will come out of the efforts, but they are "definitely an effort worth making". If grain exports from the Black Sea stop, he said, the international grain market will be affected, and if energy exports stop, the Global South will be disproportionately hit, including on fertilizer. "Of course we have our interests, but more than our interest, we also have the larger interests of the Global South," he said.

He said India has always held that the conflict is unlikely to be resolved on the battlefield. There were negotiations in the early stages, he said, but many parties with an interest have since stopped dealing with each other, and the lack of contact does not help build confidence. He said peace conferences were often held without Russia, and India has questioned the point of such gatherings.

'Age of flux'

On ties with major powers, Jaishankar said the United States is one of India's principal strategic partners, its largest economic and biggest trade partner, and a major political and defence partner.

He said the central question of this era, which he called an "age of flux", is how India deals with the US, the rise of China, a "stable, traditional" relationship with Russia, and new possibilities with Europe and the UK, where India has concluded or is pursuing trade agreements.

Each of these ties offers possibilities and comes with challenges, he said. India cannot take a "black and white view", and must weigh them in a considered and judicious manner. Progress on one front, he said, makes it easier on others, and "it's the opposite of a zero-sum game".

New geometry and the Global South

Asked about the "new geometry" of global diplomacy, Jaishankar said India's approach reflects an "Indian personality" on the world stage. Many of the concerns India has voiced, on food, fuel, fertilizer and finance, are shared by other countries, he said. India's diplomacy has worked to diversify fuel sources through the crisis, and the country has increased its fertilizer procurement to avoid a domestic shortage, even as costs rose.

The Global South, he said, expects India to articulate its voice on the world stage. "Somebody has to do it, and in the eyes of many countries, one of those somebodies is a country like India," he said.

A new architecture is emerging, he said, because old alliance structures have loosened and the rise of China has created new compulsions within the international system. "We are moving towards a multipolar world, whose architecture and geometry is obviously very different from the way it used to be before," he said.

As a post-colonial society, India also has a strong emotional bond with the Global South, he said. "We may be unique in many ways, but we are not distant from the world," he said.

He also said the United Nations remains gridlocked, with only a handful of countries resisting reform.

Explaining the 4Fs, Jaishankar said these were much more the concerns of many Global South countries, adding that India has absorbed the rise in fuel costs.

"If you look at the 4Fs: food, fuel, fertiliser, finance. These were much more the concerns of many Global South countries. For us, the cost of fuel has gone up. We have absorbed it...we have increased our fertiliser procurement...for us, fuel costs are high, fertiliser costs have gone up, but what I was really expressing was a larger sentiment and a larger interest of the Global South," he said.

Yeo on India's positioning

Jaishankar was speaking on a panel with Singapore's former foreign minister George Yeo, who said India has positioned itself well and is not threatening to other major powers the way China is. He said the government has been skilful in holding India in a "sweet spot" that is not static and must keep shifting.

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Yeo said Southeast Asia, Japan, Europe and the US all want India to do well, if only to balance China, and that India's large and growing internal market means everyone wants an equity stake in it. He also said India's diversity gives visitors a sense of familiarity that they may not feel in a more homogeneous society.