India likely to see weaker monsoon in 2026, forecasts Skymet

India is expected to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026, private weather forecaster ‌Skymet ⁠said ⁠on Tuesday, as the El Nino weather pattern is set to reduce precipitation in ⁠the second ‌half of the June-September rainy ⁠season.

Monsoon rainfall is expected to be 94% of the long-period average of 868.6 mm for the four-month ‌period, Skymet said.

India Meteorological ⁠Department (IMD) is likely to issue its first forecast for the monsoon season next week.


The June-September southwest monsoon brings about 70% of India's annual rainfall. It is vital for the agriculture sector which contributes significantly to the country’s GDP and supports more than half of its more than 1.4 billion population. Timely arrival and distribution of monsoon rains too are key as most of the kharif sowing takes place during June and July.

Normally, southwest monsoon sets in over Kerala on June 1 and covers entire country by July 15.

El Nino refers to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean while La Nina is the cooling of the sea surface, which typically strengthens the monsoon.