India gets the rain in August, but monsoon deficit still widens

India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall deficit has widened to nearly 14% despite better-than-expected rains across several parts of the country in August, with erratic rainfall hurting kharif crop sowing, The Times of India reported on Sunday.

The country’s rainfall deficit, measured from June 1, stood at 13% at the end of July but increased to nearly 14% by August 29, largely due to severe shortfalls in Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and parts of the Northeast, according to the report.

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The uneven monsoon has also weighed on kharif acreage. Total area under summer-sown crops was nearly 2% lower than the corresponding period last year as of Friday, although the gap had been close to 3% at the end of July.

Paddy acreage was down more than 3% from a year earlier, while maize, the country’s largest feedstock for ethanol production, recorded a decline of more than 4%.

The fall in maize acreage could put pressure on alternative ethanol feedstocks, including sugarcane.

Twelve states have recorded rainfall deficits of more than 20% since June 1. Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh have seen cumulative rainfall shortfalls of more than 40%, according to TOI.

Peninsular India has been particularly affected, with cumulative rainfall more than 23% below normal. Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala have remained largely dry through much of the southwest monsoon season.

The India Meteorological Department has forecast some relief for eastern India over the next few days, with heavy to very heavy rainfall expected at isolated locations in Gangetic West Bengal on Sunday, Jharkhand on Monday and Odisha through September 1.

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However, the Met department expects “subdued rainfall activity” to continue over peninsular India during the coming week, limiting the scope for a significant improvement in the overall rainfall deficit.

The uneven rainfall comes despite concerns around an El Nino-linked weak monsoon. El Nino refers to the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and is generally associated with weaker monsoon conditions in India.