India eyes reduced critical tech dependence over next 20-25 years: Ashwini Vaishnaw

India is drawing up a long-term strategy spanning up to 25 years to reduce its dependence on foreign countries for critical technologies, as geopolitical tensions, shifting trade policies and disruptions to global supply chains force governments to rethink their technological vulnerabilities, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said.

Speaking at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, Vaishnaw said New Delhi was identifying technologies and components where excessive reliance on overseas suppliers could expose India's economy and manufacturing sector to external shocks.

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The approach, however, does not mean India intends to manufacture everything domestically. Instead, the government wants to build capabilities in strategically important sectors while strengthening its position within global technology supply chains.

"Things change, politics change, geopolitics play a big role, so we have to constantly calibrate our approach, and we in India are thinking at least 20 years ahead," he said.

According to Vaishnaw, the government is working with different planning horizons, setting immediate priorities for the next three to five years, medium-term objectives covering five to 15 years and longer-term ambitions extending as far as 20 to 25 years.

The broader objective is to ensure that India can continue manufacturing and developing essential technologies even when international partnerships, trade arrangements or geopolitical conditions change.

Semiconductors at the centre of India's strategy

One of the clearest examples of this approach is India's semiconductor industry, where the government is looking beyond chip manufacturing to develop the materials and components required to sustain domestic production.

Vaishnaw said the second phase of India's semiconductor programme would place greater emphasis on building an ecosystem encompassing chemicals, gases, substrate materials and other inputs needed to manufacture chips.

These materials form an essential part of semiconductor production, meaning that establishing fabrication facilities alone would not eliminate India's dependence on overseas suppliers.

"Without ecosystem, no manufacturing effort will ever pay off," Vaishnaw said.

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He pointed to India's mobile phone manufacturing industry as an example of how domestic capabilities can develop gradually.

The sector initially relied heavily on assembling imported components before expanding into the production of modules and other parts. India now manufactures several components domestically and has begun exporting some of them, he said.

The minister suggested that a similar progression would be necessary in semiconductors, where developing a complete supply chain would require sustained investment and time.

India looks to strengthen domestic technology development

Beyond manufacturing, Vaishnaw acknowledged that India would need to increase spending on research and development while ensuring that more resources were directed towards applied research.

He cited India's development of an indigenous end-to-end 4G telecom technology stack as an example of collaboration between the government and private industry.

According to the minister, the technology was developed in three-and-a-half years and "is deployed on more than 100,000 towers."

The project, he suggested, demonstrated India's ability to develop complex technological systems domestically when research, industry participation and government support were aligned.

At the same time, Vaishnaw maintained that technological sovereignty should not be confused with complete self-sufficiency. Given the international nature of technology production, India would continue working with global partners while identifying areas where domestic capabilities were essential.

AI disruption and global debt pose longer-term risks

The minister also warned that technological disruptions could coincide with broader economic challenges in the coming decades, potentially creating new pressures on governments and businesses.

He identified artificial intelligence, particularly its implications for employment and the services industry, as one of the major changes that countries would need to prepare for.

Vaishnaw also expressed concern about debt levels in advanced economies and the possibility that financial instability could compound disruptions caused by emerging technologies.

"It's going to bring in a much bigger turbulence because by that time AI would have brought in many other disruptions in the employment sector, in the way people, especially the services industries, the way they work, and the debt levels getting unravelled. All those things are going to be extremely difficult times ahead," he said.

Against this backdrop, Vaishnaw said India was seeking to strengthen its resilience across the financial, economic and technology sectors.

He pointed to the country's public debt-to-GDP ratio, which he said had declined from 61 per cent to 55 per cent over the past five years.

The discussion also featured Cisco Chairman and CEO Chuck Robbins, who backed India's approach of developing strategically important domestic capabilities while continuing to collaborate with trusted international technology companies.

Robbins said India's scale and its emphasis on combining domestic capabilities with global partnerships offered a practical model for pursuing technology sovereignty.