India could overtake China in affluent consumers by 2036: Report reveals how 8.2 crore more Indians could enter the high-spending consumer class

India could have more affluent consumers than China by 2036, with the country's fast-growing consumer base expected to reshape spending patterns over the next decade.

According to the latest report from NielsenIQ (NIQ) and World Data Lab, India is projected to have 10.8 crore affluent consumers by 2036, slightly ahead of China's estimated 10.3 crore.

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The report defines affluent consumers based on daily spending of more than $90, meaning the category measures consumer spending power rather than income or overall wealth.

India could add 8.2 crore affluent consumers

India is estimated to have around 2.6 crore affluent consumers in 2026. Over the following decade, that number is projected to rise by another 8.2 crore, taking the total to 10.8 crore by 2036.

China, meanwhile, is expected to add around 6.2 crore affluent consumers over the same period.

Among the countries separately highlighted in the NIQ and World Data Lab report, India is expected to record the largest increase in its affluent consumer population.

India already has 64.9 crore core consumers

The growth story is not limited to affluent consumers. The report estimates that India has around 64.9 crore 'core consumers' in 2026. This category refers to people spending between $13 and $90 a day.

Importantly, the core-consumer group is separate from the affluent-consumer category and should not be added to India's affluent consumer count.

The numbers underline the sheer scale of India's consumer market, with spending power expected to expand across different segments over the coming decade.

US will still have the world's biggest affluent consumer base

While India is projected to overtake China, the US is expected to remain ahead of both.

The report projects that the US will have around 23.1 crore affluent consumers by 2036, compared with 10.8 crore in India and 10.3 crore in China.

Globally, the affluent consumer population is forecast to reach 102.5 crore by 2036, up from around 65.7 crore in 2026.

That represents an increase of approximately 36.9 crore affluent consumers over the decade.

India's consumer market enters a new phase

NIQ and World Data Lab classify India as a 'volume growth' market, pointing to factors including its growing population and expanding middle class.

However, the report cautions that some of its broader observations about consumer growth apply to emerging markets across Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Africa, rather than India alone.

The report said that growth in some categories would come from wider household participation, improved affordability and greater distribution.

In other categories, however, spending could increasingly be driven by consumers trading up.

“In some categories, growth will be driven by broader household participation, affordability or distribution. In others, it will come from premium purchases as newly affluent consumers look for products that deliver on quality, convenience or status,” the NIQ and World Data Lab report said.

Consumers still want value for money

Having more affluent consumers does not necessarily mean everyone will automatically choose premium products.

The report's findings on 'upgrade consumers' show that value remains important. Around 60% said they focus on value for money, while 46% said they are willing to pay for convenience.

The report also noted that consumers who are prepared to spend more can still trade down when they do not see a clear reason to pay a premium.

In other words, a higher spending capacity does not mean brands can simply charge more. Consumers still want to know what they are getting in return.

FMCG prices have risen sharply

The changing consumer landscape comes against a backdrop of significantly higher prices.

According to NIQ, global fast-moving consumer goods prices increased by 26% between 2021 and 2025.

That makes the balance between affordability and premiumisation particularly important for companies trying to capture the next wave of consumer spending.

Affluent consumers could drive a huge share of spending

The relatively small affluent consumer group already accounts for an enormous amount of global spending.

NIQ and World Data Lab estimate that there will be around 65.7 crore affluent consumers worldwide in 2026, compared with approximately 410 crore core consumers.

Despite being a much smaller group, affluent consumers are projected to spend $35.9 trillion during the year.

The much larger core-consumer population is expected to account for around $31.6 trillion in spending.

That gap highlights why companies are increasingly interested in consumers moving into higher spending brackets.

Brands may need to offer both value and premium products

For companies, the message from the report is fairly clear: there may no longer be a single type of consumer to target.

As more people enter higher spending categories, some will look for premium products that offer better quality, convenience or status. At the same time, a large number of consumers will remain highly conscious of prices and value.

The report said companies will therefore need to create products that provide a convincing reason to upgrade while continuing to offer affordable choices.

“The ‘average’ consumer is no longer a reliable growth target,” the NIQ and World Data Lab report said.


Inputs from TOI