Complex dynamics of India-China ties & its future

India and China share one of the most complex relationships. Over the last few decades, their relationship continues to be marked by a complex mix of deep economic interdependence and intense strategic, territorial and geopolitical competition. Bilateral relations between India and China have seen an upward momentum following the meeting between PM Modi and President Xi Jinping in Kazan in October 2024.

The two leaders subsequently met on the sidelines of the SCO Summit in Tianjin in August 2025 and tried to bury the tensions emanating from an unresolved border in the pursuit of a common ground for development and fight against terrorism. In the backdrop of the US tariffs levied on developing countries which had changed the direction of the winds towards a more multilateral response to the tariffs issue, the discussions become increasingly significant.

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A seminar on India-China ties in Delhi on Tuesday brought together experts from government, academia, strategic community, industry, and media, across the domain to understand the various aspects of the strategic partnership that has sustained and adapted itself in accordance with the changing geopolitical environment.

Welcoming the delegates and participants, M. Jamshed, Distinguished Fellow at CRF, stated that periods of stabilisation have been there within the India-China relationship. He underscored that India and China have more than thirty dialogue mechanisms in place at various levels, across bilateral political, economic, cultural, people-to-people and consular matters, along with dialogues on regional and global issues. This keeps their relationship strong and open to mutual intervention whenever necessary. “There is a need for normalisation and reinstating the India-China cultural ties,” he added.

“International diplomacy can create opportunities for the India-China relationship to harness further.,” said Aotin Zheng, Journalist, Global People Magazine, Beijing, while delivering his address at the seminar organised by leading Indian think tank Chintan Research Foundation (CRF).

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He highlighted the humanitarian aid provided by Indian physicians during the Second World War to China. He further stated that India and China have cooperation mechanisms in terms of international financial systems. Against the western dominated financial institutions. Both banks work in tandem, towards providing just conditionalities while providing funding for developing countries. The differences between China and India are temporary in nature and shall be addressed for an enhanced long term and stable relations.

Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli, Centre for East Asian Studies, JNU began his address by connoting India–China relations are shaped by both cooperation and constraints, which show up in five Chinese policy-influencing groups, namely, the Chinese Communist Party, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, the People’s Liberation Army, commercial lobbies, and elite perception. These five channels frame how each country views the relationship and are responsible for the narrative that flows for each nation within China.

Prof. B. R. Deepak, Centre for Chinese and Southeast Asian Studies, JNU highlighted a few assumptions that shape the relationship between India and China. Moreover, it is four decades of this massive economic growth in China that resulted in strategic disequilibrium and widening asymmetries between India and China. Speaking of possibilities, he said that the focus shall be on stabilized border management and restoring economic ties.

Dr. Pooja Bhatt, Associate Professor, Centre for Strategic Studies, O. P. Jindal University mentioned that both countries have shared maritime interests in the Indian Ocean Region and this could be one of the converging points of collaboration and cooperation.

Mohammad Saqib, Founder and Secretary General, ICEC, emphasised that a significant hurdle in current international relations is the reliance on political rhetoric and global perceptions rather than economic realities. Furthermore, he stressed that while India boasts a population of 1.4 billion, the actual consumer market remains relatively small. Recognizing the limitations is essential as domestic consumption alone cannot currently drive the scale of economic expansion required, necessitating deeper integration into global value chains, he stated.

Tapan Bhardwaj, Senior Research Fellow, IPCS highlighted the current state of global climate change negotiations. He underscored that in the complex arenas of agenda-setting, norm creation, and the broader negotiation process, the current dynamic is heavily influenced by Chinese dominance across multiple strategic levels. He further stated that there is immense, untapped potential for robust, multilateral collaboration between India and China. By strategically aligning their interests on the global stage, these nations could fundamentally alter the current negotiation paradigm.

Antara Ghoshal Singh, Fellow, ORF, talked about economic thaw between India and China. She underscored that the Chinese economy faces supply shocks and weakening exports, resulting in a perceived "true pressure" from shrinking demand; while official figures show macro stability, real growth lags at 3% versus 5% nominal, with PPI deflation of 2.6% in 2024 and flat in 2025, highlighting a significant discrepancy between perceived and actual performance.

The Seminar, titled “India and China at 75 - A Pivotal Juncture: Expectations and Reality,” was organised by Dr. Bhavna Singh, Visiting Fellow, CRF.