India braces for uncertainty as Iran faces leadership void

New Delhi: India is bracing for uncertainty with a void in the power structure in Iran following the killing of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his close aides in joint Israeli-US strikes. New Delhi is closely monitoring the unfolding situation in Iran.

While a succession plan is being readied with Khamenei's son Mojtaba Khamenei as the possible successor to the slain leader, civil unrest is being feared. Mojtaba has long been considered the shadow power broker, controlling key IRGC appointments, overseeing intelligence operations, and managing his father's inner circle. But a father-to-son transfer of power could spark anger, not only among common Iranians, but also among supporters of the system.

In this moment of uncertainty amid killing of several key figures in military attacks, the authorities will want to project stability and a smooth transition. However, a street agitation aimed at capturing institutions is being feared, ET has learnt. A messy power struggle in Iran is detrimental to India's interests. Iran has a complicated power structure in place. In the event of the demise, resignation, or dismissal of the supreme leader, an assembly of experts is obliged to take action as soon as possible to appoint and introduce a new leader.


Until the introduction of the new leader, a council comprising the President, the head of the judiciary, and one of the jurists of the Guardian Council, selected by the Expediency Discernment Council, shall temporarily assume all duties of the leader. If, during this period, any one of them is unable to carry out their duties for any reason, another person shall be appointed in their place to the council by the selection of the assembly of experts, maintaining the majority of jurists.

The supreme leader is at the heart of Iran's complex power-sharing Shiite theocracy and has a final say over all matters of the state. He also serves as the commander-in-chief of the country's military and the powerful Revolutionary Guard. Though India and Iran occasionally differed on the Kashmir issue, Tehran has been a factor of stability in the Persian Gulf and for ensuring New Delhi's connectivity links to Eurasia and Afghanistan. Contrary to some reports, India funded and managed Chabahar Port hasn't been hit in the US-Israeli strikes.