IBM-owned US forecaster predicts marginally above-normal monsoon in 2021

The Weather Company has predicted a marginally above-normal monsoon for India in 2021, which would make it the third consecutive year with excessive rainfall.

The IBM-owned US company’s stage-one seasonal outlook released on Wednesday said the monsoon this year is likely to be 101% of the long-performing average, which currently stands at 88 cm for India.

The onset of the monsoon in Kerala will be a couple of days earlier than the normal date of June 1, TWC said.


“Climate model forecasts suggest a near-normal to slightly above-normal monsoon season this year,” said Todd Crawford, TWC’s chief meteorologist.

The India Meteorological Department, in its stage one forecast last week, said rainfall would be 98% of the long-performing average. IMD will issue a second forecast in late May, when meteorological conditions are clearer.

Crawford said like in previous years, rainfall will be distributed unequally across the subcontinent. While the western regions of the country are likely to see excessive rains, eastern parts might see deficits, in line with IMD’s forecast.

“From June to September, all the seven northeastern states as well as West Bengal are likely to witness only 90% to 95% of normal monsoon rainfall,” TWC said.

Other eastern states such as Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and eastern Uttar Pradesh are set to receive rainfall ranging from 95% to 100% of normal.

The rest of the country will get 100% to 105% of normal rainfall, said TWC. Monsoon rainfall was at 109% of the normal in 2020 and 110% in 2019.

“The evidence is tilted a bit towards a wetter-than-normal season, although nothing like the magnitude of the last two very wet seasons,” Crawford added.