Harsh winter predicted for Delhi-NCR, UP, Haryana, Rajasthan, and more in Northwest, Central India

The summer monsoon, which concluded on Monday in the 'above normal' category with nearly 8% higher-than-average rainfall, is expected to fully withdraw from the country by mid-October, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD also announced on Tuesday that the winter monsoon will likely set in around the same time, specifically by October 17, in the southeastern peninsula.

The IMD hinted at the possibility of a severe winter in north India, especially in the northwest and central regions, including Delhi-NCR. This forecast is linked to the potential development of La Niña conditions during October and November.

La Niña, a climate phenomenon associated with the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, often brings good monsoon rains to the Indian subcontinent. However, despite predictions from global models, La Niña remained absent during the southwest monsoon months this year.


"There is a 71% chance that La Niña conditions will develop during October-November," said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra. He added that years with La Niña typically see colder-than-normal temperatures in northern India, particularly in the northwest and adjoining central regions, leading to possible cold waves during the winter months.

Mohapatra noted that the full impact of La Niña on winter severity would only be clear later, as the phenomenon is still in its early stages. The IMD plans to monitor its development and provide a more accurate forecast in November.

This year’s above-normal rainfall was primarily due to several factors, including six depressions, 14 low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal, and the cyclonic storm ‘Asna’ in the Arabian Sea.

The abundant rainfall not only increased the acreage of kharif crops beyond the five-year average, raising hopes for a strong harvest, but also filled reservoirs, ensuring irrigation for rabi crops and supporting hydroelectric power generation.

A unique feature of this year’s monsoon was the regional variation in rainfall, with arid west Rajasthan receiving 71% more rain than its usual average.

Inputs from TOI