Experts will meet next week to discuss plan for future waves

Experts in the government are set to meet next week to discuss a new strategy to improve the response to any new surge in Covid-19 infections.

The number of new Covid-19 cases in India has been dropping steadily. People in the know told ET that the experts will focus on how the government can respond effectively should another surge in infections happen or a new variant springs up.

"We need to prepare better for the potential next wave. A new strategy has to be crafted on the response of the government in case a new variant enters the country," said a senior government official.


The experts will review the tools that India has, where it stands in the ongoing efforts to keep infections low, and what they could expect from an unpredictable virus, the official said.

The preparations are important in view of predictions that a new wave of Covid-19 infections could hit the country in June. A team of scientists at IIT Kanpur have predicted that the new wave will hit the country around June and will continue for the four months, peaking in August.

However, Anurag Aggarwal, director of the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology (IGIB), said he remains sceptical of such predictions. "The next wave will be when there will be a variant capable of breaking through the immunity induced by previous waves plus vaccination," he said. "Of course, with time, immunity declines but that would be more relevant by year end rather than June."

Agrawal said the best approach is active surveillance.

"That is the way it has been and that is the way it will be," he said. K Srinath Reddy, president, Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), said that "whether, when and how severe" a new wave of Covid-19 will be depends on several factors.

"Will there be a new variant that is highly infectious and has immunity evading capability? How many people in India who acquired immunity through natural infection or immunisation in 2021 will have adequate level of protection from neutralising antibodies and T cell immunity to protect them throughout 2022?" he said.

"How many persons who are vulnerable due to age or comorbidities will be provided protective doses of vaccines in 2022? The virus must find a sufficient number of susceptible people to create a new wave."