IMD expects excess rainfall across India this month after dry spell

After a poor July and a disastrous August, monsoon rains are expected to revive in September, bringing respite to farming activity that has been lagging due to inadequate rain across most regions.

Rainfall is likely to be excessive this month, but the season may still end with a rain deficit, coming in below its long-performing average (LPA) of 880 mm, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday, revising its pre-monsoon forecast of a normal season.

Over the first three months of the monsoon season, rainfall in India has been 9% below normal. This gap will be narrowed this month, the weather office said in a virtual press conference. “The rainfall averaged over the country as a whole during September is most likely to be above normal, more than 110% of the LPA that stands at 170 mm,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.

Central India and the Konkan coast are likely to see heavy rainfall for the next four weeks, as per IMD’s extended range forecast using a multi-model ensemble forecasting system. Most northern states and parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, however, will get below normal rain, it said. As of now, only the southern peninsular subdivision has recorded a rain surplus this season.

Kharif acreage, which has been lagging all season, is likely to see an uptick this month as the sowing windows are still open for crucial crops such as paddy.

The Centre expects a record harvest of 305.44 million tonnes this year, led by rain-fed crops such as rice, sugarcane, cotton and soyabean.