El Nino unlikely this year: International forecasters

In yet another boost to India's southwest monsoon season, the rain-disrupting weather phenomenon El Nino is unlikely this year, international forecasters said.

The prevailing phenomenon La Nina conditions that bring above-normal rainfall for the Indian subcontinent have turned inactive. However, historically, El Nino conditions bring deficient rain, which has in turn resulted in some of the worst droughts in recorded history in India.

"Most model outlooks suggest a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state (neither El Nino nor La Nina) is the most likely scenario through the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn and winter," said the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in a statement on Tuesday.


This news will cheer farmers and policymakers as it raises prospects of another record harvest and will further enhance agricultural growth amid gloom in other sectors of the economy, which have been beaten down by the pandemic. Good monsoon boosts rural income and the demand for consumer goods, automobiles, and gold.

The BOM said that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist till August, by when half the Indian monsoon period will have passed.

Last week, another international forecast AccuWeather said that it expected a normal monsoon in India due to global meteorological factors. The Indian weather office, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), is likely to issue the first stage of its formal forecast in mid-April.