El Nino effect raises concerns over monsoon: Divergent forecasts by IMD and private forecaster

The high probability of an El Nino effect in 2023 has thrown a cloud over the monsoon. While the government forecaster India Meteorological Department sees a normal rainy season, private weather service Skymet has predicted below normal monsoon in the June-September season. An ET analysis found that this is not the first time that their forecasts have differed. In three of the last six years, IMD and Skymet agreed on the intensity of rainfall during the southwest monsoon. In the last instance of EL Nino in 2018, both predicted a normal rainfall with varying intensities. The country received below-normal rainfall that year. ISHAAN GERA looks at the data and history of El Nino.