Democratic wave in US midterm elections weakens Trump at home, opens a new front for India-US ties in Congress

The US midterm elections dealt a decisive blow to the Republican Party and handed majorities to the Democratic Party in the Senate, House and increase in the State Governors' count. A gain of seven seats in the Senate in a single election is unusual in recent times, as also victories in traditional Republic bastions. These reflect deep discontent about politics, economy, inflation and the war in Iran.

Reversals for a sitting President in midterm elections are not unusual. President Bill Clinton (1994), President George Bush (2006) and President Barack Obama (2010) have faced it. There are differences. The US society and polity are more polarised and anxious today. The global upheaval caused by President Trump's choices in less than two years is unprecedented.

Also read: US midterm election results: What Trump & Republicans' loss means for India


This reversal is both sharper and more personal to President Trump. He has cast the Republican Party in his personal image and turned it into a silent fiefdom. His voice boosted or doomed Republican politicians in the past. So, this election is a rejection of President Trump's policies, proclivities and personality.

Its first consequences will be domestic. One, his authority over the Republican Party will erode. A large section will see him as a declining asset and will seek to break free from his absolute domination. Some may test the prospects of returning to the party's Reaganian ethos or to its centre-right moorings. The MAGA section will seek restoration of its original no-war mandate. President Trump will want a MAGA successor to continue his legacy. So, a contest for the future of the Republican Party will take place, and a more diverse set of candidates position themselves for the presidential election in 2028.

Politics will become acrimonious and paralysed. Democrats may be tempted to revive investigations and impeachment processes against President Trump, but will have to weigh it against the history of the previous attempt. The focus, instead, should be on providing relief to stressed household budgets. However, budgets will be harder to pass and government shutdowns more likely. US interest rates may go up and the spiralling debt will be harder to contain and service. Democrats will face resistance from the President in introducing measures for taxation, welfare and lower cost of living.

Presidential veto threats will loom large. Overriding it will require an impossible two-third majority of the two chambers. Courts will be more burdened with adjudication on the division of power.

Nevertheless, the power of oversight, hearings, call for information and intelligence, and the Senate's power to withhold approval of Presidential nominations will be important political tools for the Democrat, if not necessarily a restraining factor for the President, including on foreign policy and wars. But grand bargains may be possible to keep the wheels of the government running and for Democrats to exercise some influence on social and economic policies.

US Presidents tend to test the boundary that divides power between the executive and the legislature. President Trump has tried to erase it. That applies most to external engagement. The contest over power to apply tariffs and sanctions on trade will continue. The Congress may try to restore some traditional elements of foreign policy like aid and international programmes, but policy decisions still lie with the administration. Declaration of war may be a Congressional prerogative, but has not been used since World War 2. The President can take recourse to "unauthorised" deployments for 60 days, as is the practice. Restraint can come from Congressional power to authorise funds for wars, but defence is a seductive subject.

War weariness influences elections, as it did in the Congressional election in 2006 and in the Presidential election in 2008. On the most pressing question of the West Asia War, whether President Trump will be tempered by the election results or press ahead unconcerned on Iran as his lasting foreign policy legacy remains to be seen. Public and political mood is one thing; Israel's influence on the Congress, even a diluted one, is another. Irrespective of that and uncertainty in Israel, the basic goal on Iran will not change. Diplomacy may get a better chance. The Democrat-led Congress will be more inclined to traditional US positions on Russia, China and Europe, including on the Ukraine War. But a reorientation of US industrial and trade policies, which started during the Obama administration and evolved since then, has bipartisan support.

The Congressional election will not have an immediate impact on the US policy on India. That will continue to be driven by the Trump administration. For all the effusive affirmations of envoys, India is not a priority for Trump's ambitions or challenges. Trade irritants existed in the past, but were set aside for strategic goals.

There may be no change from the administration and Democrats may not be generous either. An end to the Iran war will be a relief for India. A return to the traditional hard line on Russia and China will have opposite consequences for us.

Also read: US Midterm Elections 2026: Democrats usher in a new era with their resounding sweep of the House and the Senate

Engagement with the US will again have two pillars. The importance of Congressional engagement of the kind seen in the 2000s has returned. India needs to intensify dialogue with the Congress and the Democratic leadership on the future of the strategic partnership; the terms of engagement in the new world; trade and investment; mobility and immigration; energy and digital sovereignty; South Asia and West Asia; the Indo-Pacific and China; reconciling India-US relations with India's strategic autonomy, including on India's ties with Russia; and, on India's domestic issues.

Although two years ahead, this will also help position India for the presidential contest of 2028. The Congressional swearing-in will take place in January, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi's December 2026 visit to the US for G20 could be a starting point.

(The writer is chairman of India Trade Promotion Organisation)