Cyclonic storm brewing in Bay of Bengal may hit Andhra coast on Nov 3; likely weaker than Cyclone Arnab: IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday said a cyclonic system brewing in the Bay of Bengal is likely to affect the Andhra Pradesh coast on November 3, adding that the system is expected to be weaker than Cyclone Arnab.

The weather department, while releasing its November 2026 outlook, forecast below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country, including the southern peninsula, while predicting above-normal temperatures in large parts of India.

Below-normal rainfall likely in southern peninsula


IMD said rainfall is likely to be below normal across most parts of the southern peninsula, including Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and south interior Karnataka.

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The long-period average rainfall for the five meteorological subdivisions of south peninsular India in November is 118.7 mm. The department expects rainfall in the region to remain below 77% of this average.

Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, northeastern states, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, as well as Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, parts of Haryana and Gujarat.

Rainfall is expected to be below normal across the remaining parts of the country.

Above-normal temperatures expected across most of India

IMD forecast above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of the country in November.

Some parts of northwest India, including Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and east Uttar Pradesh, are likely to experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures.

Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal across most parts of India, except some parts of central and eastern India, Maharashtra and Telangana, where normal to below-normal temperatures are likely.

Strong El Nino conditions to continue

IMD said strong El Nino conditions are expected to continue over the next two to three months, with their intensity likely to peak in November before gradually weakening.

The conditions are expected to persist through the winter season and could continue until March, although their intensity is likely to decline.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, with the department's forecast suggesting that it may continue to remain neutral in the coming months.

October forecast largely accurate

Reviewing its October outlook, IMD said its rainfall forecast was largely accurate across most parts of the country.

However, the monthly forecast could not capture the above-normal rainfall activity over parts of north and south peninsular India due to the cyclone and associated low-pressure systems.

The department said monthly and seasonal forecasts cannot predict individual cyclones or low-pressure systems.

IMD also noted that October 2026 recorded the highest maximum temperature since 1901, while the mean temperature was the third highest. The maximum temperature records in recent years indicate a rising trend, the department said.