Covid-19 trajectory similar to February when second wave began

India’s Covid-19 trajectory in the last week was near static, similar to the one when the second wave began in February. Even as the health ministry and Indian Council of Medical Research maintained that the second wave was not over, the trend was the same as February. The caseload and test positivity rate have been declining steadily except in Maharashtra and Kerala, which account for over half the fresh cases reported daily. This was the scene in February when the government had refused to identify it as the second wave.

On February 4, data shared by health ministry put the weekly test positivity at 1.8%. Health secretary Rajesh Bhushan said, “only two states have high number of active cases – one is Kerala at 69,365 and another is Maharashtra at 38,762.” Niti Aayog member VK Paul termed it as “a satisfactory and consistent picture” but struck a note of caution and encouraged people to follow Covid-19 appropriate behaviour. In the same press conference, the government said US, UK, Brazil and Germany were seeing a second wave.

Maharashtra and Kerala have seen an increase in cases over the last three days after a fall. Maharashtra had a dip in reported cases from an average of 9,000 cases to 6,740 on July 6, which has now increased to 9,558 on July 8 and 9,083 on July 9. The same pattern is seen in Kerala where the reported cases had declined from 13,658 on July 1 to 8,037 on July 6. it increased to 15,600 on July 8 and 13,772 on July 9. Kerala has contributed 32% of India’s total reported cases last week and Maharashtra 21%.


India’s neighbours like Bangladesh are witnessing a third wave. Emphasising on the need for employing Covid-19 appropriate behaviour, joint secretary Lav Aggarwal said, “in UK, after Euro 2020 were held there was an increase in Covid-19 cases. We need to be careful and follow Covid-19 appropriate behaviour.”