Core agricultural zone may see 'dismal' rains till July 6

Private weather forecaster Skymet has predicted "dismal" monsoon rains in the core agricultural zone of central and western India until the first week of July, a crucial time for sowing or at least preparing the field for the kharif season. "Agriculture heartland is looking rather cracked and parched," Skymet said in a report on Monday. "Inadequate rains over the central and western parts, the core monsoon zone, will find it difficult to absorb the drying effects, rather early in the season."

Based on its Extended Range Prediction System (ERPS), Skymet has forecasted a dismal outlook for rainfall until July 6.

"It is likely to leave the poor farmer in a state of indecisiveness choosing between the type of crop and the crop cycle," the private weather forecaster said.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its forecast for June 15-21 said overall rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over northeast and southeast peninsular India, near normal over northeast India and many parts of northwest India, and below normal over rest of the country. Until June 7, the country as a whole, saw a 57% deficiency in rainfall activity compared to the long period average (LPA), according to the weather office. While southern peninsula saw deficiency of 63%, it was 71% in central India. Northwest India, however, had 69% excess rainfall compared to LPA until June 7.

Despite the high probability of the emergence of El Nino weather phenomenon, IMD expects "normal" rainfall during the four-month monsoon season starting in June.

The southwest monsoon provides about 70% of India's annual rain and is crucial for agricultural activities in the country where most of the farmland is rain-fed. Adequate rains help boost crop output and lower food prices. This is vital for the country's economic prosperity, particularly amid inflation fuelled by food prices.

Monsoon rains are essentially required the most over the core agricultural zone of Maharashtra, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh for timely sowing, Skymet said in its report.

This year monsoon arrived eight days late in Kerala, making a meek entry. While the monsoon stream has advanced rapidly along the western coast due to cyclone Biparjoy, it is struggling to cross over to the interior parts of the peninsula, across the western ghats, according to Skymet.