Cloud computing: Weatherman sees weak rains in September, warns of farm risks

New Delhi: India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September, with precipitation expected to be less than 91% of the long-period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department said Monday.

The official weather office cautioned that below-normal rainfall could affect agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation and drinking-water availability, while also escalating heat-stress risks in some regions.

Also Read: India’s August rains fall 16% below average, lowest in three years


August was unusually warm, recording the country's highest average minimum and mean temperatures for the month since records began in 1901. Nearly half of India's districts received deficient or largely deficient monsoon rainfall till August 31, while August itself was India's seventh-driest since 2001.

Many parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September, according to the IMD. However, some parts of northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India will likely get normal to above-normal rainfall, the weather office said.

Temperatures are also expected to remain elevated. Average maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal across most parts of the country, while minimum temperatures are also expected to stay above normal. Parts of northwest, west-central and northeast India could see normal to below-normal minimum temperatures.

IMD said strong El Nino conditions are currently prevailing over equatorial Pacific and are expected to strengthen further in the coming months. The impact of El Nino conditions may linger until February-March, said Mrityunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD.

Also Read: India gets the rain in August, but monsoon deficit still widens

Erratic monsoons due to El Nino conditions in 2023 reduced India's foodgrain production by 6.1% in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June).

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, with IMD's model indicating that neutral conditions may persist through September. The IOD is known to counter the impact of El Nino and can provide a boost to rainfall.

Lower farm output could accelerate food inflation and affect farmers' incomes, thereby hurting rural demand for fast-moving consumer goods, motorcycles, tractors and other products.

For major monsoon, or kharif, crops such as paddy, cotton, pulses and oilseeds, the distribution and timing of rainfall are critical, as variability in precipitation can influence crop yields and farm output. The kharif season, which starts in June, accounts for more than half of India's foodgrain production, making its outcome crucial for food inflation.