BRICS' trade puzzle: Modi, Putin and Pezeshkian pitch three different fixes

The BRICS Business Forum, held in New Delhi a day ahead of the two-day leaders' summit that opens Saturday at Bharat Mandapam, was, by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's own description, the biggest the bloc has convened in its 20-year history.

Founded in 2006, BRICS now represents, in Modi's words, half the world's population, 40% of its combined GDP and a quarter of global trade.

Also read: Elephant, Dragon & Bear: Modi, Xi and Putin may converge at BRICS for a big power play


PM Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian delivered the day's three most closely watched addresses.

While all three spoke of expanding trade within the bloc, their speeches centred on different concerns: Modi on removing trade barriers, Putin on countering Western economic pressure, and Pezeshkian on rebuilding an economy squeezed by sanctions and conflict.

One stage, three different problems

Modi's speech centred on trade facilitation. He asked the BRICS Business Council to draw up a report identifying and removing the bloc's top ten trade barriers, and presented India as a source of stability amid global uncertainty.

Also read: BRICS 2026: PM Modi calls for top 10 trade barriers to be removed; says India is building ‘economic bridges’ to shield Global South

"As trade barriers increase the world over, India is building economic bridges," he said, pointing to UPI, startups and AI as areas where India was expanding its capabilities as, in his words, a "global solutions hub." His remarks did not reference the West, the US or sanctions.

Putin's speech focused on external economic pressure. He accused "Western competitors" of resorting to "ugly" tactics to regain their eroding economic dominance, alleging attacks on pipelines, blocked transport corridors, seized maritime vessels and the threat of secondary sanctions against countries pursuing independent economic policies.

Pezeshkian linked economic security directly to military conflict. Speaking in his first major international appearance since the US-Israel war with Iran began in February, he identified "the United States and the Israeli regime" as responsible for what he called military aggression against Iran, saying it had "once again revealed an important reality: economic security cannot be separated from national and regional security."

"Economic resilience is not possible without diversifying trade partners, sources of financing, and payment channels," he told the forum, citing Iran's years under extensive sanctions.

The three addresses reflected the different economic situations of their countries: India seeking wider market access, Russia adjusting to sanctions, and Iran looking to rebuild trade ties amid conflict.

The numbers behind the optimism

The speeches came against the backdrop of new trade data that presents a more complicated picture of the bloc. A report from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), released ahead of the summit, shows India's trade deficit with the BRICS grouping has more than tripled in five years, from $74.5 billion in FY2021 to $226.1 billion in FY2026.

Total goods trade with the bloc's 11 members doubled over that period, from $203.1 billion to $417.5 billion, but most of that growth came from imports, which surged 131.8% to $321.8 billion, while exports rose 48.8% to $95.7 billion.

The pattern repeats at the bloc level. The 11 BRICS economies together account for 21.6% of world merchandise exports, yet only about 18.8% of their exports go to fellow members.

GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava has described the result as a China-centred hub-and-spoke structure rather than a balanced trading network: China exported $550.8 billion worth of goods to fellow members, while India recorded the grouping's largest internal deficit.

The data intersects differently with each leader's argument. The report's findings on internal trade barriers echo Modi's call for their removal.

They also sit alongside Putin's assertion, backed by his figures showing BRICS generating over 40% of world GDP and more than half of global growth over five years against the G7's 29% and 18%, that the bloc has emerged as an alternative engine of the world economy. India's exports to Iran declined over the five-year period GTRI examined, even as Tehran seeks new trade partners.

Points of convergence

Despite the differences in framing, the three speeches shared common ground. All three leaders called for more trade within BRICS and flagged the vulnerability of existing trade channels.

Modi's call for secure sea lanes and the safety of seafarers, which he also raised in his bilateral meeting with Putin, touched on the same supply-chain concerns Pezeshkian cited when he referred to "disruptions in supply chains" and the "increasing use of economic instruments to exert political pressure."

GTRI's recommendations for deepening intra-BRICS trade, which include local-currency settlement, also align with Pezeshkian's call for diversified payment channels.

Also read: The BRICS trade boom has a $226 billion hole for India

The Modi-Putin bilateral offered one measure of closer BRICS trade ties in practice: the two sides agreed to work towards raising annual bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030 from the current $65 billion, according to the Indian readout of the meeting, with the Ministry of External Affairs saying the two sides also discussed cooperation in defence, critical minerals, civil nuclear energy and fertiliser supplies.

Putin also offered Russia as a reliable supplier for global energy and food security, and cited his country's economic performance, growth of 10.3% in 2023-24 and record-low unemployment of 2.3% despite what he said were more than 30,000 sanctions, over double every other country combined, as evidence that sanctions pressure could be withstood.

The GTRI report, however, points to a structural challenge that runs through all three visions. If intra-BRICS trade follows a hub-and-spoke pattern centred on China, expanding trade within the bloc without addressing that imbalance could deepen members' dependence on Beijing rather than diversify it.

India's own numbers illustrate the concern: Imports from China more than doubled to $131.6 billion over five years, while Indian exports to China fell 8.1%. GTRI has cautioned that without stronger export growth, deeper intra-BRICS trade could further widen India's deficit.

The leaders' summit begins Saturday at Bharat Mandapam, where trade within the bloc is expected to be among the central themes of the two-day discussions. Whether Modi's push for easier trade, Putin's case for alternative networks and Pezeshkian's search for new economic lifelines can be reconciled into a common agenda is among the questions the two-day summit will test.