Bangladesh regime sensitive to India’s security interests key to stability in Northeast

The practice of inclusive politics in Bangladesh and a regime in Dhaka that is sensitive to India's security interests is imperative for the stability of India's Northeastern states and West Bengal.

The eight landlocked states of NE India are vulnerable and prone to insurgency if a radicals-backed regime governs Bangladesh advocating a Greater Bangladesh encompassing parts of West Bengal and the North East.

The issue is in the spotlight as West Bengal and Assam will hold assembly polls by May within months of the national election in Bangladesh. A hardline and conservative regime in Dhaka can create disturbances in these elections.


While Bangladesh under the past BNP governments provided sanctuary to NE insurgent leaders and encouraged extremist groups that were exporting cross-border terror into India, few of the student leaders (who led the movement against Sheikh Hasina) over the past year have openly called for annexing Northeastern states. Each NE insurgent group operated out of Bangladesh when BNP and its then ally Jamaat-e-Islami was in power.

The BNP, which appears to be the frontrunner to win elections in February, must put in place an atmosphere of trust for improving ties with India. The urge to maintain cordial ties with India was showcased when BNP received EAM S Jaishankar at Dhaka cordially by Tarique Rahman following the demise of his mother Khaleda Zia. BNP’s approach to cross-border initiatives, particularly transit rights to India to use Bangladesh territory to reach NE states, will be closely watched.

The past BNP governments refused to accede to India’s request for transit rights and played the nationalism card. The Awami League government, sensitive to India’s security interests and economic rationale, granted transit rights that also benefited local exchequer through royalties.

ET had reported last month that Islamabad is reportedly planning to rehabilitate ULFA Chief Paresh Baruah, (currently in China), in Dhaka.

Pakistan is hoping for the return of a favourable regime in Dhaka that would facilitate return of Indian insurgents who could then operate out of Bangladesh replicating the model that was earlier pursued under the BNP-Jamaat government. In the past, Indian insurgents operating out of Bangladesh maintained links with extremist groups and were allegedly controlled by ISI. In 2004 Baruah allegedly was part of the effort to smuggle 10 truck arms into Bangladesh via Chittagong, but the plan was nixed when the consignment reached the port. Tarique Rahman was also implicated in this case and so was the then Jamaat leader and a sitting minister.

Baruah had operated out of Dhaka for close to two decades under the patronage of ISI and BNP-Jamaat and fled to China just before the 2008 elections. Experts recalled that Baruah ran a business empire from Dhaka and had assumed pseudonyms for himself and his family members. In 2009, the then PM Hasina handed over all North Indian Insurgents operating from Bangladesh soil to India.