A made-in-China Covid concern for India

Covid worries have returned as the government steps up vigilance to prevent the pandemic surge in China and a few other countries crossing over to India. Though infections in the country are at rock bottom, the fast-spreading BF.7 (Omicron BA.5 sub-lineage) variant fuelling the current Chinese surge is causing alarm.

This version of the virus has also been detected in India. Taking a cue from the Centre, states have directed officials to increase testing and genome sampling besides launching booster drives. Here's a look:

1. Why cases have surged in China

• Sudden exit from zero-Covid policy because of protests
• Mass testing stopped after dismantling of policy
• Millions of elderly are still not fully vaccinated. Only 66.4% of 80+ people are fully vaccinated
• Zero-Covid has meant herd immunity has not developed
• More cases expected as people return home for the lunar new year holiday
• China’s vaccines not seen as effective as others; none updated to target highly infectious Omicron variant

* Chinese CDC expert has predicted three waves: mid-Dec to mid-Jan, late-Jan to mid-Feb, and late Feb to mid-March

2. Covid cases worldwide have been range bound, India's at rock bottom
Globally, daily cases have stayed between 320,000 and 1.1 million since early September 2020 except between late Dec 2021 and mid-April this year

India witnessed three cycles of rising cases, peaking in September 2020, May 2021 and January 2022. There was another scare in July this year, but infections soon fell

3. Why Covid fears in India may be unfounded

• BF.7 detected in country; no episode of spread
• High proportion of population exposed to virus has developed natural immunity
• Good herd immunity in population
• Vaccines used in India have high efficacy

4. What needs to be done
A. Renewed focus on vaccination

• Need to increase booster uptake. Only 23.5% of fully vaccinated (21% of eligible population) have had a booster shot

• Another booster vaccination campaign should help
• Newly introduced nasal vaccine should be made free

B. Track the virus

• Conduct genome sequencing of a larger number of samples
• Stricter surveillance of arrivals from suspect countries
• Caution at hospitals and those with severe fever, sore throat and shortness of breath should be Covid tested

C. Preventive measures

• Mask mandates should be considered
• Practice caution and raise awareness