0.05°C: India’s global warming share trails US & China, but the heat is on

New Delhi: India contributed under 0.05 degrees Celsius to global warming as of 2024, less than major emitters such as the US, China, the European Union and Russia, but more than other industrial and emerging economies including Brazil, the UK and Australia, research has revealed.

Among the countries analysed, the US was found to be the single largest country contributing to warming at about 0.27 degrees Celsius, followed by China's contribution of 0.19 degrees Celsius.

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The European Union contributed 0.17 degrees Celsius, while Russia's share was 0.07-0.08 degrees Celsius.

Researchers VK Patel from Cranfield University in the UK and PA Taksal from the Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur said that much of India's contribution has come from recent decades and the strongest increase occurred after 1990.

They added that while the country's cumulative share of present-day warming remains relatively modest, the rapid recent growth highlights an increasing importance of decarbonisation of the energy system.

The findings, published in the journal Environmental Research Communications, also showed that the rise is driven majorly by carbon dioxide emissions from use of fossil fuels in the energy sector.

Further, agriculture remains the main non-carbon dioxide warming through gases methane and nitrous oxide, with the gases accounting for about a third to two-fifths of India's total contribution, the study found.

India's is a more multi-gas profile than many early industrialised emitters, the researchers said.

India is among the countries that are said to have contributed the least towards global warming, yet also among those projected to experience the worst consequences owing to its tropical climate and dense population, among other factors.

Estimating national contributions towards global warming help clarify how emissions over the years from different countries shaped the global temperature change, the researchers said.

Quantifying India's contribution to warming and how the profile varies across sectors and greenhouse gases can provide a useful context for future mitigation policies, they said.

The team calculated annual contributions to present-day warming for countries, including the major emitters, Brazil, the UK, Australia, Canada, South Africa and the rest of the world.

For India, annual contributions were calculated during 1750-2024.

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"India contributes approximately 0.047-0.05 degrees Celsius to 2024 warming, less than the United States, China, the EU27 and Russia among the major emitters considered, but more than several other industrial and emerging economies," the authors wrote.

"India's contribution is approximately 0.047 °C-0.05 °C, placing it below the major early industrialised contributors but above the United Kingdom, Japan, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Australia and South Africa within the selected country set," they said.