‘France’s protests increased polarisation — and helped the far-right’

Jan Rovny is Professor of Political Science at the Center for European Studies and Comparative Politics at Sciences Po, Paris. As France saw furious protests disrupting life, he spoke with Srijana Mitra Das in ET Evoke about the factors underlying social unrest, from macroeconomic woes — to worries about AI:

Q. What is the core of your research?

A. I am a scholar of party politics. I mostly study what political parties propose to do, how they compete, how different types of voters support them and the decision-making that goes into voters’ calculations when they elect.


Q. We have seen tremendous protests in France recently, starting with student complaints over the education system — can you tell us more?

A. The initial protests started in the outskirts of Paris, in high schools where students were protesting specific concerns they had about the organisation of the school day and access to replacement teachers who come when regular teachers are on leave. Students were also concerned about the state of some of the buildings, which are usually managed by regions rather than the central government — this causes disparities. Worries over the physical state of schools, including classroom quality, building quality, heating and cooling provisions, washrooms, etc., came together then with concerns over the system of admissions to universities, how that functions and what opportunities it gives.

Q. How did these protests turn into a backlash against a high cost of living — and did the protesters also change?

A. Partly, yes. The student protest was, in a way, a catalyst for a broader response from society. The first people to join the students were teachers — then, there were civil servants, which brought out a broader segment of the population concerned over the rising cost of living. This is particularly associated with the inflation France has seen over the last few years. Part of the issue — and the reason it is concentrated among civil servants and public service workers — is that while inflation has been significant, a rise in wages has not followed inflation for these people.

Q. What is France’s broader economic situation underpinning the protests?

A. The most important context is that France has a relatively high debt — this is around 119% of GDP. Against the backdrop of a rather unstable political situation, the government has been struggling to propose budgets that would redress the deficits France has been having for a long time now. They have not been able to propose a budget that could reduce the deficit below 5%. So, there are concerns France may not be able to redress its debt, which is driving up interest rates on French government bonds — that is putting additional pressure on the debt because the government needs to service this and the servicing costs even more money.

So, on the one hand, the government is strapped for cash and is under pressure from the international financial markets it borrows from — meanwhile, it faces demands by protesters who request finance. Students are asking for $11 billion to education now, which the government cannot just conjure up out of thin air.

Q. Is there an unemployment situation which is worrying young French people?

A. These protesters do have broader questions about their future — what kind of world and job market will they have? Young people are also very concerned about global warming. France had its hottest year on record, with exceptionally high temperatures this summer — I believe at certain times, we even surpassed heat in India, which is unheard of. French buildings, and particularly French schools, are not ready for this — it was unbearable for many students to sit in classrooms that were over 35 degrees. Simultaneously, the use of generative AI, which is replacing some forms of work, and particularly substituting young interns in many firms, is raising questions over what kind of employment they’ll have and if the current system of education is preparing them for this new job market? There is a sense of unease among the young.

Q. There were reports of minority-community migrants rioting in Marseille, etc. As a scholar of liberalism and illiberalism, how do you analyse that?

A. I’m not aware of any ethnic dimension to these riots. France does not collect any information on origin or religion, it’s illegal to do so from the perspective of the state, so we don’t have information about who the arrested people were or who rioted or looted. It’s a very pertinent question from an analytical point of view — however, the statistics simply don’t and won’t exist.

Now, the looting and criminal behaviour that occurred on the margins of these protests should be separated from the protests themselves. Those are legitimate and peaceful expressions of popular concern that are legal — but, on the margins of protests, there are often groups of people who are not particularly political but seek to cause trouble. They use this social upheaval to go and destroy things, break storefronts, steal and loot.

I’d imagine these are primarily young men, perhaps less educated but not even necessarily so as some middle-class young men could have also seized the opportunity presented by weakened authorities. It’s possible some share of these people were of migrant backgrounds — I’d say the reason they’re there is their particular anger, a lack of expressed energy elsewhere and mostly, their social problems. This is not about their ethnicity — it’s about their social situation and the inability to engage and gainfully integrate some of these people into the labour market. To me, although I don’t have the numbers, this is not an ethnic thing — it is a social thing.

Q. Has excessive force been used by the French police?

A. There is a certain development to the police and French protests in general. This was an exceptionally strong and violent protest — but protests occur regularly in France. There are demonstrations practically every Saturday in Paris and other cities. It’s normal to see regular strikes that don’t escalate to anywhere near these levels.

Now, over the last few years and since the Yellow Vest Movement in 2018 particularly, police response has become more heavy-handed — there is, to some degree, escalation and polarisation. Also, a minority among protesters throw stones and use force against the police. Police personnel do get hurt — however, the response of the police is disproportionate, using grenades that cause serious damage, extensively utilising teargas, water guns and other responses against protesters. Clearly, the images of young kids, sometimes, young girls, being hit by the police or having parts of their arms blown off by grenades are shocking.

Q. On which issues do French political parties differ most sharply in ideology?

A. France is a highly polarised political system. There is divergence on economic issues, cultural questions, approaches to minorities, immigration, the European Union and climate. Political parties are divided on pretty much everything that matters to the French public.

Q. So, how will these protests shape the future of the right and left in France?

A. I feel, in fact, these protests change nothing — the polarisation that has been growing in France will only get deeper. These protests actually increase the divide between the left and right — and particularly the extreme left and extreme right.

Currently, some established political parties, particularly the government and other centre and centre-right parties, are strongly attacking the left party, La France Insoumise (LFI), for inciting these protests. The LFI supported the protests but I have no evidence of them inciting violence or any illegal acts. However, they are being blamed and this is creating deep chasms between the government and this left-wing party. The leader of the Senate even spoke out recently, apparently considering the possibility of banning this party, which is quite an extreme response.

I think this is playing perfectly into the cards of the extreme right, which is enjoying the show of violence and destruction — this will increase public calls for law and order and a strong hand, in which they will win. So, this is certainly significantly increasing the likelihood of support for the extreme right.

It will also move some voters to the left, because some people who were centre-left or undecided now agree the students have a point and the government — and particularly the police — overreacted. Some of them will go further to the left— these protests will not change the lay of the land, characterised by long and deep divides in French society. This is just an outburst — an extremely violent one — polarising the general trend further.

Q. France’s debt is alarming — yet, many citizens clearly oppose cuts to spending. What is a viable way forward?

A. That depends on who you ask. The right would say — we should cut certain spending, limit some social spending and increase our retirement age, which the government tried to do but had to back down on. The left-wing answer would be — you are not taxing efficiently. The argument of the left is that if we had maintained the level of taxation that existed in France at the beginning of Emmanuel Macron’s term, our deficit would only be half today. The left argues it’s not just that we are spending too much, we are also not taxing enough and we are not taxing the right way — we must tax the rich much more effectively.

The 1% richest families in France have become dramatically richer over the past decade. They are taxed at a much lower level than the average French person because of moving their finances into family holdings, etc. There are serious proposals on how the wealth of these people — around 1,000 ultra-rich families — could be better taxed and significantly redress public finances.

Views expressed are personal