Require 42% cut in annual carbon emissions by 2030, says UNEP

NEW DELHI: With all eyes on the next update on the countries’ pledge for climate action, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on Thursday pitched for cutting 42% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, to keep the world within a relatively safer limit of 1.5 degree Celsius of warming. The continuation of current policies will lead to a catastrophic temperature rise of 2.6-3.1degree C over the course of this century above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) level, UNEP said.

It specifically urged the G20 members, responsible for 82% of total global emission, to substantially increase their mitigation action and ambition now and in the new pledges next year to save the world from the disastrous consequences of climate change in the form of extreme weather events such as cyclones, heat and cold waves, forest fires and floods.

In annual terms, the world, in fact, needs to shave 7.5% off emissions every year until 2035, a figure that will grow with each year of inaction. In contrast, the global emissions grew 1.3% year-on-year in 2023.


The UN environment body noted that though G20 members are collectively “off track” to meet their commitments, a few of them such as India, Turkey, Mexico, China and Russia are likely to meet their current individual pledges with the first three being fully on track to achieve their 2030 goals.

Rich nations including the USA, UK, Canada, Japan and Australia, however, remain a big problem as these nations, despite their huge historical emissions, failed to take required deep emission cuts, shows the analysis of the UNEP in its annual ‘Emission Gap Report’. The report was released on the sidelines of the 16th session of the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) in Cali, Colombia on Thursday.

Flagging the unfulfilled promises of most of the rich nations in its report, the UN body said the nations must collectively commit to cut 42% off annual GHG emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels, in their next round of pledges in 2025 to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping the global annual average temperature rise within 1.5 degree C limit.

“The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters...Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time. Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap, said António Guterres, UN secretary general.

Appeal to take a deep emission cut was made at a time when the GHG emissions grew 1.3% year-on-year to reach 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2023. Besides, the global average near-surface temperature last year was at 1.45 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline, making it the warmest year in the 174-year observational record.

Though India was the third largest emitter last year contributing 8% of the total emission, its per-capita annual emission at 2.9 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) was not only lower than the global average (6.6 tCO2e/capita) but also substantially lower than the largest emitter China (11 tCO2e/capita) and the second largest emitter, the USA, (18 tCO2e/capita).

The report, comes ahead of the upcoming UN climate conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, also estimated $ 0.9-2.1 trillion per year of incremental investment till 2050 to meet the global net-zero goal. It shows that there is technical potential for emissions cuts in 2030 up to 31 gigatons of CO2 equivalent – which is around 52% of emissions in 2023 – and 41 gigatons in 2035.

“I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and then go all-out to get on a 1.5 degree C pathway... Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP.

The report underlined that the increased deployment of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy could deliver 27% of the total emission reduction potential in 2030 and 38% in 2035. "Action on forests could deliver around 20% of the potential in both years. Other strong options include efficiency measures, electrification and fuel switching in the buildings, transport and industry sectors," it said while emphasising that it is still "technically possible to meet the 1.5 degree C goal".

"At COP29, leaders must respond to the latest science and act on their fair share of responsibility - especially wealthier nations who have fueled this crisis for decades. It’s time to stop shifting responsibility and start delivering real climate action with the scale, speed, and finance that this moment demands," said Harjeet Singh, climate activist and global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.

He said, "Every fraction of fossil fuel emissions is pushing us closer to catastrophe. The UNEP findings are alarming yet again, while political inaction threatens to lock in irreversible damage. World leaders continue to drag their feet, protecting the interests of the fossil fuel industry, while people are suffering right now from the devastating impacts of a crisis they didn't create."