Paris Agreement: Formal US exit possible only in 2020

NEW DELHI: It remains to be seen whether French President Emmanuel Macron's riposte to US President Trump -“Make Our Planet Great Again“ -will actually encourage nations to remain firm on their climate commitments when Trump has also spoken about the option of renegotiating terms for an American re-entry .

However, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat has clearly ruled out the possibility of renegotiation.
Member countries had adopted, signed and ratified the accord under the convention.


“The Paris Agreement remains a historic treaty signed by 194 and ratified by 147 countries. Therefore, it cannot be renegotiated based on the request of a single party (country),“ it said in a statement on Friday.

Noting the announced intention to renegotiate the modalities for US participation, the UNFCC said, “In this regard, it stands ready to engage in dialogue with the US government regarding implications of this announcement.“

Though experts believe it would be difficult to meet the main goal of the accord, they note that the announcement at this juncture would at the most be symbolic in nature.

Rules under the Paris Agreement clearly say that the US, technically, cannot withdraw from it before November 4, 2020 -nearly the end of Trump's current tenure. Article 28.1 of the accord stipulates that a party can withdraw from it by giving a year's written notice to the UN secretary-general only after three years of the agreement having been in force. Since the pact entered into force on November 4 last year, the US, which has ratified it, would be able to give notice of withdrawal earliest on November 4, 2019, and can thereafter withdraw only by November 4, 2020. This is likely to coincide with the next US elections which are usually held between November 2 and November 8.

It will take lesser time if the US decides to withdraw from the parent treaty, the UNFCCC. But then Trump will have to face the US Senate. It is, however, uncertain whether courts would hear a judicial challenge to Trump's unilateral withdrawal from deal or UNFCCC if the executive and Congress are at an impasse. The question of whether a President has unilateral authority to withdraw from a treaty remains unresolved.

This is not the first time the US is opting out of an international climate pact. It pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol saying emerging economies do not have quantified emission targets.

But, unlike the Paris accord, the US had not ratified the Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997. The Kyoto pact had binding targets for emission reductions only for the 38 developed countries. The Paris deal is more comprehensive because it has universal application to all countries.