Monsoon outlook brightens as US raises El Nino odd

NEW DELHI: In what could boost the odds for a normal monsoon this year, US government agencies have marginally lowered the probability of El Nino developing during the Indian monsoon months in their update released late on Thursday.

The El Nino bulletin issued by the US Climate Prediction Center (CRC) and other agencies shows a slightly higher probability for neutral conditions to continue during August and September. Its April update had given greater odds for El Nino conditions during these months.

El Nino is a term for abnormal warming of waters in the east and central equatorial Pacific Ocean which leads to atmospheric changes that are known to adversely impact the crucial summer monsoon in India.


“Relative to last month, the forecaster consensus reflects slightly lower chances of El Nino (~45%), in part due to the conflicting model guidance and lack of a clear shift toward El Nino in the observational data,” the CRC bulletin said.

CRC’s assessment of lower odds for El Nino comes two days after a similar forecast by the Australian weather bureau, which said El Nino could develop only by September end.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) too had last month released a lower probability of the abnormality setting in during the June-September window.

However, all agencies have also cautioned about a high degree of uncertainty in El Nino forecasts made till May, due to what meteorologists call the ‘spring predictability barrier’.

“There are more chances of Pacific conditions remaining neutral (in the monsoon period) but uncertainty persists. A clearer picture will emerge by next month, when we shall release an updated monsoon forecast,” said D Sivananda Pai, IMD’s lead forecaster.

In its initial monsoon outlook last month, IMD had forecast rainfall at 96% of long period average, which is in the lower end of the normal range.