CO2 emissions may hit record level this year

DUBAI: Despite record growth in clear energy, the global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels are projected to increase by 1.1% to reach record levels of 36.8 billion tonnes this year from 2022 with emissions in India being estimated to increase by 8.2% and in China by 4% whereas it may decline by 7.4% in the EU and 3% in the USA during the same period, said a Global Carbon Budget report.

Analysis shows that the increase in fossil emissions is driven mainly by China and only to a smaller degree by India which still has clear development needs to overcome.

Released on the sideline of the UN climate conference (COP28) on Tuesday, the report underlined that there is a 50% chance that global warming will exceed 1.5 degree C (Paris Agreement warming limit threshold) "consistently" in about seven years at the current emissions level.


“It now looks inevitable we will overshoot the 1.5 degree C target of the Paris Agreement, and leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree to rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2 degree C target alive," said Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study.

On the positive side, emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) are projected to decrease slightly this year, but are still too high to be offset by current levels of reforestation and afforestation (new forests).

The report, produced by an international team of more than 120 scientists, noted that the global emissions from coal are projected to increase by 1.1%, whereas from oil it's projected to increase by 1.5% and from gas by 0.5% in 2023 over 2022 levels.

It said, "Atmospheric CO2 levels are projected to average 419.3 parts per million (PPM) in 2023 -- 51% above pre-industrial levels. About half of all CO2 emitted continues to be absorbed by land and ocean 'sinks', with the rest remaining in the atmosphere where it causes climate change."