THIRUVANTHAPURAM: In the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, some leaders from Sangh Parivar outfits in Kerala mooted the idea of fielding candidates under the banner of Sabarimala Karma Samithy in at least three or four constituencies.
They wanted to replicate the experiment of 1987 when candidates fielded by BJP-led Hindu Munnani finished second in six assembly constituencies in the state and gave a tough fight to LDF and UDF in at least a dozen others.
Sources in BJP said the central leadership was averse to the idea. BJP’s appeal was much broader, it was felt; besides, any attempt at communal consolidation of votes was likely to be rebuffed in a state like Kerala. The idea was aborted but hardliners in the Parivar are working overtime to ensure leaders who can polarise Hindu votes are fielded in Thiruvananthapuram, Attingal, Pathanamthitta, Thrissur and Palakkad constituencies which have been rated as “high probables” among the 20 seats by the BJP leadership.
The move to ask Kummanam Rajasekharan to quit as Mizoram governor and start campaigning in Thiruvananthapuram was part of that strategy.
“Rajasekharan’s work for Sabarimala and Aranmula and his unwavering belief will easily help him identify with believers even if they are not BJP sympathisers,” said Smitha Menon, one of the architects of the ‘Ready to Wait’ movement, floated by women who would wait to turn 50 to go to Sabarimala, as a campaign against the Supreme Court verdict granting entry to women of all ages.
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In Thiruvananthapuram, Kummanam’s opponent and Congress candidate Shashi Tharoor took a U-turn and supported the ‘Ready to Wait’ campaigners after sensing that a majority of Hindu believers are against the SC verdict. His move was pragmatic as the constituency he represents has 66.9% Hindu population – a majority of which comprises upper caste Nairs and Brahmins. The Nair Service Society (NSS) and Kerala Brahmana Sabha, in fact, threw their weight behind orthodox believers in the Sabarimala issue from day one.
“The Sabarimala issue may help BJP win more votes than what they polled last time. Whether the surge in vote share will help them win a seat or two is the core question and I would say the chances are very less,” said political scientist J Prabhash. BJP polled 10.8% votes in the 2014 assembly polls, which grew to 15% in 2016. A minimum vote share of 30% is required for the party in a constituency to brighten its chances for a win as the state witnesses triangular contests in all constituencies.
BJP state president PS Sreedharan Pillai told TOI, “There is no ban in discussing the policy issues regarding Sabarimala. We will expose the government’s wrongdoings. Even now, our people are in jail for organising peaceful protests. The hurt they experienced will be a factor.”
CPM too was in favour of debate. “We want to expose the double standards of Congress and BJP. They supported the SC verdict at first and then did a U-turn,” said CPM politburo member MA Baby.
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The noise notwithstanding, Prabhash says Sabarimala may end up being only one of the factors guiding voters. The “hurt” factor is not as severe in northern Kerala – a Left stronghold – as it is in central and south. In the last two rounds of local body bypolls, LDF made big gains in the north. “Also, there are two claimants for votes of traditional believers. Congress and BJP have stood with them and their votes may get divided,” said Prabhash.
