LS Polls 2024 Phase 2 Voter Turnout: Maharashtra, UP, Kerala, MP, Bihar see fall in voting

A clear pattern- of diminishing voter enthusiasm- seems to be emerging with Phase 2 of the 2024 Lok Sabha poll also recording a significantly lower voter turnout than in 2019- just like was seen in Phase 1.

Voter turnout in Phase 2 of Lok Sabha 2024, crossed 63.5% by 10 pm, but the figure even after updates is still likely to be well below the near 69.39% turnout recorded in Phase 2 of LS elections 2019.

Given that now nearly 191 of the total 543 constituencies have polled and mostly reported a decline, serious concerns emerge that such a trend may persist over the next five phases.

More so, with the Indian Meteorology Department predicting the heat wave unleashing in full earnest over the next few days. Phases 3,4, 5, 6 and 7 of Lok Sabha 2024 are slated for May 7th, 13th, 20th, 25th and June 1. The ECI has also formed a task force to plan mitigation measures in order to draw in maximum voters.

However, these factors and trends could mean that India is unlikely to breach the 67% record high turnout seen in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and may revert to the pre- 2019/2014 turnout trend cycle.

The 1999 general elections- held months after the Kargil war- saw India report a 59.9% turn out. Lok Sabha elections in 2009 and 2004 reported a voter turnout of 58.21% and 53.64% respectively.

The figure, however, jumped up to a 66.4% high in 2014 as India brought in a major mandate change replacing the Congress led UPA government with BJP led NDA.

The 2019 Lok Sabha polls saw this figure move up even further at 67%- the highest voter turnout recorded in India so far- yielding the BJP 303 parliamentary seats.

While a clear relationship between turnout and anti-incumbency/incumbency is difficult to establish, the turnout drop is still expected to considerably impact political calculations across isles.

Factor the Phase 2 data drop- as much as by four to eight percentage points and almost across states, as per ECI Voter app data of 5 pm.

Uttar Pradesh was at near 54.8% turnout against 62.18% in 2019. Kerala reported 66.2% voting by 10 pm as compared to 77.8% in 2019.

Madhya Pradesh surprised with only a 58.3% turnout against a robust 67.7% in 2019. Maharashtra, too, has posted a near 58.99% turnout against 62.8% in 2019. All eight seats showed a drop with Nanded and Hingoli at the bottom of the tally.

Rajasthan, showed its voter turnout breaching just about 64.07 % against the 68.4% of 2019- four percentage points down.

Bihar also continues to report declining voter turnout- with a near 58.5% turnout in Phase 2 2024 vis a vis 62.93% in 2019.

While turn out in Chhattisgarh and Tripura was close to the 2019 figures at 72% and 78% respectively, West Bengal even with a 71.8% turnout was near eight point lesser than 2019 which saw 80.66%. Similarly, strife torn Manipur even with 77% turnout was lesser than the 84.14% turnout of 2019- states that traditionally report high voting.

Karnataka, however, did better than 2019 with 69.2% turn out in comparison to 68.96% in 2019.

Manipur, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Assam and Tripura recorded over 70% voter turnout while Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra stayed lowest at the 58% range.