BJP leads but race still seems tighter in Gujarat

Ahmedabad: Though a saffron stronghold since 1995, the way Gujarat will vote in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections will be interesting primarily because it is the home state of prime minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah. Any significant loss of seats to the Congress, the party that the BJP is in direct contest with here, could be a source of embarrassment.

The BJP has always been strong in state. In 1998, BJP got 19 of the 26 seats while in 1999 it won 20. Post-Godhra and the Gujarat riots of 2002, BJP’s performance was reduced to 14 seats in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls while the Congress won 12. There was not much improvement in 2009 post-delimitation, when BJP won 15 seats, even though Modi continued to get re-elected in the Assembly elections. The 2014 Lok Sabha election was a watershed with Gujaratis backing Narendra Modi for the prime minister’s post. The BJP swept all the 26 seats and even the Congress stalwarts had to bite the dust.

As in the rest of the country, BJP is fighting the elections in Gujarat in Modi’s name and telling the voters that he should get another term, notwithstanding who the party candidate is. The shadow of the December 2017 Gujarat assembly election looms large in these polls and some issues plaguing the people, especially in rural areas, are being flagged by voters in these elections as well. BJP won a closely fought assembly polls by a whisker.

BJP continues to maintain a strong hold on Gujarat’s urban constituencies. The party is more surefooted in Gandhinagar, Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara and Rajkot but is facing a challenge in Saurashtra region, North Gujarat and the tribal belt.

The Congress is putting up a good fight and is confident of winning five to seven seats. In North Gujarat, it is in contention in Banaskantha, Patan and Sabarkantha while it could be a close battle between the two parties in Mehsana. In central Gujarat, Bharatsinh Solanki is said to be in a strong position in Anand.

Mehsana was the hotbed of the 2015-16 Patel agitation. The Patidars, who were strong BJP supporters here before the protests, may be splitting their votes. Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel hails from this area but Hardik Patel, now in the Congress, has developed some influence. The sizable Thakore votes are also getting split between the two parties in north Gujarat.

In Saurashtra, Amreli has given some hope to the Congress while the contest in Junagadh is said to be close.

Farmer distress is an issue for the BJP and most people in rural areas say they are more concerned about the redressal of their problems. Shortage of water for irrigation is a major issue in both Saurashtra and Chota Udaipur regions while DAP and urea prices, and not getting adequate price for their crops is a worry for farmers. Hurdles in crop insurance claims and compensation is also an important factor that could influence voters in rural areas.

“Rs 6,000 per year is not enough for our needs. We end up spending more on seeds, fertilisers, water, labour and transport,” a farmer belonging to the Rabaari caste told ET in Chota Udaipur when asked about the Centre’s recent farmer income support scheme.

Though the tribal votes are usually split in Gujarat and this election may not be an exception, most voters in Chhota Udaipur, Panch Mahal as well as down south in the Dangs area complain of lack of water supply to their fields.

Both BJP and Congress have fielded some of their MLAs in the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress ticket distribution could have been better but has suffered due to internal politics, party leaders said. Bahruch, Kheda and Rajkot are some of these seats. Interestingly, the Congress has given ticket to leaders from the same caste as the BJP candidate in many constituencies, thus splitting the caste votes. With not much polarisation in these elections and caste playing a decider, the impact of this move would be interesting to watch. The Pulwama terror attack and the Balakot airstrike are topics of discussion in the urban seats, while farm issues dominate rural areas. BJP has dropped 11 of its sitting MPs, including LK Advani in Gandhinagar and union minister Haribhai Chaudhary in Banaskantha.